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Research on integrated resource strategic planning based on complex uncertainty simulation with case study of China

机译：基于复杂不确定性模拟的资源整合战略规划研究-以中国为例

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摘要

In response to climate change, developing renewable energy has become a main way of energy transition in many countries. In terms of medium-and long-term, the development of renewable energy generation technologies, such as wind and solar, is certain to face uncertainties. More than this, power demand and other factors are also facing many complex uncertainties. However, traditional planning methods are not able to take various uncertainties into account. In the past, the serious underestimation of uncertainties existing in the development caused China's a series of problems, such as renewables curtailment Therefore, this paper firstly reviews the current status and the existing problems of renewable energy generation in China, and discusses the crucial uncertainty factors affecting medium-and long-term renewable energy planning; and then, the complex uncertainty models of power demand and renewable energy generation cost are built respectively, and the improved integrated resource strategic planning model is proposed; finally, by using the proposed model China's wind, solar and biomass power development during 2016-2030 is studied from the perspective of big data planning, and the advantages and drawbacks of the improved method is discussed. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：为了应对气候变化，发展可再生能源已成为许多国家能源过渡的主要方式。从中长期来看，风能和太阳能等可再生能源发电技术的发展必将面临不确定性。不仅如此，电力需求和其他因素还面临许多复杂的不确定性。但是，传统的计划方法无法考虑各种不确定性。过去，发展中存在的不确定性严重低估导致了中国一系列问题，例如可再生能源的削减。因此，本文首先回顾了中国可再生能源发电的现状和存在的问题，并讨论了关键的不确定性因素影响中长期可再生能源规划；然后分别建立了电力需求和可再生能源发电成本的复杂不确定性模型，并提出了改进的综合资源战略规划模型。最后，通过提出的模型，从大数据规划的角度研究了2016-2030年中国风能，太阳能和生物质能的发展，并探讨了改进方法的优缺点。 （C）2019 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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