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A fuzzy-stochastic power system planning model: Reflection of dual objectives and dual uncertainties

机译:模糊随机电力系统规划模型:双重目标和双重不确定性的反映

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摘要

In this study, a fuzzy stochastic dynamic fractional programming (FSDFP) method is proposed for supporting sustainable management of electric power system (EPS) under dual uncertainties. As an improvement upon the mixed-integer linear fractional programming, FSDFP can not only tackle multi objective issues effectively without setting weights, but also can deal with uncertain parameters which have both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. Thus, the developed method can help provide valuable information for supporting capacity-expansion planning and in-depth policy analysis of EPS management problems. For demonstrating these advantages, FSDFP has been applied to a case study of a typical regional EPS planning, where the decision makers have to deal with conflicts between economic development that maximizes the system profit and environmental protection that minimizes the carbon dioxide emissions. The obtained results can be analyzed to generate several decision alternatives, and can then help decision makers make suitable decisions under different input scenarios. Furthermore, comparisons of the solution from FSDFP method with that from fuzzy stochastic dynamic linear programming, linear fractional programming and dynamic stochastic fractional programming methods are undertaken. The contrastive analysis reveals that FSDFP is a more effective approach that can better characterize the complexities and uncertainties of real EPS management problems. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:在这项研究中,提出了一种模糊随机动态分数规划(FSDFP)方法来支持双重不确定性下的电力系统(EPS)的可持续管理。作为对混合整数线性分数规划的改进,FSDFP不仅可以有效地解决多目标问题而无需设置权重,还可以处理具有随机和模糊特性的不确定参数。因此,所开发的方法可以帮助提供有价值的信息,以支持能力扩展计划和EPS管理问题的深入策略分析。为了展示这些优势,FSDFP已被用于典型区域EPS规划的案例研究,决策者必须处理经济发展(使系统利润最大化)与环境保护(使二氧化碳排放量最小)之间的冲突。可以对获得的结果进行分析,以生成多种决策方案,然后可以帮助决策者在不同的输入场景下做出合适的决策。此外,还对FSDFP方法与模糊随机动态线性规划,线性分数规划和动态随机分数规划方法的解进行了比较。对比分析表明,FSDFP是一种更有效的方法,可以更好地描述实际EPS管理问题的复杂性和不确定性。 (C)2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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