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Assessing the impact of energy saving measures on the future energy demand and related GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction of Croatia

机译：评估节能措施对克罗地亚未来能源需求和相关温室气体（GHG）减排的影响

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摘要

In the light of European energy-climate package and its measures for increasing security of supply, decreasing the impact on environment and stimulating sustainability, Croatia as a new EU (European Union) member state needs to reconsider and develop new energy policy towards energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. Croatian long-term energy demand and its effect on the future national GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions are analysed in this paper. For that purpose the NeD model was constructed (National energy demand model). The model is comprised out of six modules, each representing one sector: industry, transport, households, services, agriculture and construction. The model is based on bottom up approach. The analysis has shown that energy policy measures, identified through this paper, can potentially achieve energy savings up to 157 PJ in the year 2050, which presents a 40% decrease to referent (frozen efficiency) scenario. Results obtained in this paper were also compared to the Croatian National Energy Strategy for the years 2020 and 2030. It was shown that if already implemented policies were properly taken into account the actual final energy demand for the year 2030 would be 43% lower than projected by the Croatian National Energy Strategy.
机译：鉴于欧洲的能源气候方案及其提高供应安全性，减少对环境的影响和促进可持续性的措施，克罗地亚作为新的欧盟（欧盟）成员国需要重新考虑和制定新的能源政策，以提高能源效率和可再生能源。本文分析了克罗地亚的长期能源需求及其对未来国家温室气体（GHG）排放的影响。为此，构建了NeD模型（国家能源需求模型）。该模型由六个模块组成，每个模块代表一个行业：工业，运输，家庭，服务，农业和建筑。该模型基于自下而上的方法。分析表明，通过本文确定的能源政策措施可以在2050年实现最高157 PJ的节能，这比参考（冻结效率）方案降低了40％。还将本文获得的结果与2020年和2030年的《克罗地亚国家能源战略》进行了比较。结果表明，如果适当考虑已实施的政策，则2030年的实际最终能源需求将比预计的要低43％。由克罗地亚国家能源战略。

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  • 来源
    《Energy》 |2014年第11期|198-209|共12页
  • 作者

    Tomislav Puksec; Brian Vad Mathiesen; Tomislav Novosel; Neven Duic;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Zagreb, Croatia;

    Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Denmark;

    Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Zagreb, Croatia;

    Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Zagreb, Croatia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Energy planning; Future energy demand; GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions; Energy policy;

    机译：能源规划;未来能源需求;温室气体排放;能源政策;

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