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Modelling the degradation of condition indices

机译：模拟条件指标的退化

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To ensure that the electricity distribution network achieves satisfactory levels of reliability and safety it is necessary to have well-founded and justifiable asset management policies in place. For many items of electricity distribution equipment, failures have been rare and inferences about future lifetimes are difficult to make. The paper argues that in such situations, importance should be given to obtaining condition information to aid asset management. A key requirement in using such data is the capability to model changes in an item's condition and the Markov model is proposed as being particularly suitable. The application of the Markov model to a collection of oil condition data, recorded during maintenance activity, is explained. The impact of such a model in making asset management decisions is then illustrated.
机译：为了确保配电网络达到令人满意的可靠性和安全性水平，有必要制定有充分根据和正当理由的资产管理政策。对于许多配电设备而言，故障很少见，很难推断出其未来寿命。本文认为，在这种情况下，应重视获取条件信息以帮助资产管理。使用此类数据的关键要求是能够对物品状态的变化进行建模的能力，因此提出马尔科夫模型特别合适。解释了马尔可夫模型在维护活动期间记录的油况数据收集中的应用。然后说明了这种模型在制定资产管理决策中的影响。

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