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首页> 外文期刊>Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science >Impact assessment and a fiscal recovery policy for tsunami risk: GIS and the general equilibrium approach in Hakodate city, Japan
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Impact assessment and a fiscal recovery policy for tsunami risk: GIS and the general equilibrium approach in Hakodate city, Japan

机译：海啸风险的影响评估和财政恢复政策：GIS和日本函馆市的一般均衡方法

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Given Japan’s substantial exposure to many kinds of natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons, it has been a priority to invest in resilience, guided by evidence-based modeling. In 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami became the costliest natural disaster ever recorded. This study applied a geographic information system using assumed tsunami-affected data calibrated in a recursive computable general equilibrium model to perform an economic impact assessment and an estimated recovery budget. We simulated 100 years of tsunamis and a 10-year sectoral recovery package for the sectors related to the ocean economy, such as kelp, net fishery, squid, other fisheries, food processing, and recreation, with a capital-use subsidy policy regarding investment strategy. We found that the aqua sector is incredibly vulnerable and would not recover with the capital-use subsidy within Hakodate City’s financial capability. Nevertheless, the recovery policy could still ease output price changes. On the other hand, the recreation sector could recover to pre-disaster conditions, but at huge fiscal and social costs. Meanwhile, the food processing sector’s recovery could generate social benefits and have a spillover effect on other fisheries sectors. The application of geographic information system in tsunami-prone areas could strengthen the precision of economic analysis. Such evidence-based modeling could visualize the economic impact to assist policymakers and stakeholders in foreseeing disaster risk and implementing more effective building resilience measures.
机译：鉴于日本大量暴露于多种自然灾害，如地震，海啸和台风等，这是投资弹性的优先事项，以证据为基础的建模。 2011年，大东日本地震和海啸成为有史以来最昂贵的自然灾害。本研究应用了使用假定的海啸影响数据在递归可计算一般均衡模型中校准的受影响的数据来进行经济影响评估和估计的恢复预算。我们模拟了100年的海啸和一个与海洋经济相关的部门的10年的部门恢复包，如海带，渔业，鱿鱼，其他渔业，食品加工和娱乐，资本使用补贴政策投资战略。我们发现Aqua Sector非常脆弱，不会在函馆城市的财务能力中与资本使用补贴一起恢复。尽管如此，恢复政策仍然可以缓解产出价格变动。另一方面，娱乐部门可以恢复到灾后地情况，但是有巨大的财政和社会成本。同时，食品加工部门的康复可能会产生社会效益，对其他渔业部门产生溢出效应。地理信息系统在海啸 - 易发地区的应用可以加强经济分析的精度。这些基于证据的建模可以可视化经济影响，以帮助政策制定者和利益相关者预见灾害风险和实施更有效的建筑恢复措施。

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