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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Optimists, Pessimists, and the Precautionary Principle
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Optimists, Pessimists, and the Precautionary Principle

机译：乐观主义者，悲观主义者和预防原则

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The precautionary principle has emerged as a leading guide to public decision-making about environmental risks under irreversibility and uncertainty. In this paper, we adopt a two-period model with irreversibility and agents differentiated by their degree of optimism to characterize the conditions under which the precautionary principle applies. We show in particular that it is more often applied if the decision-maker has an intermediate optimism index, if scientific research is more effective at reducing uncertainty, and if the same decision-maker makes the decisions for both periods. Moreover, we show that socially optimal decisions lead to apply the precautionary principle more often than an elected decision-maker does.
机译：预防原则已成为不可逆转和不确定性下公共决策有关环境风险的主要指南。在本文中，我们采用具有不可逆性的两阶段模型，并根据其乐观程度来区分代理，以描述预防原则适用的条件。我们特别表明，如果决策者的乐观指数处于中间水平，科学研究在减少不确定性方面更有效，并且同一决策者在两个时期都做出了决策，则更常应用该方法。此外，我们表明，与民选决策者相比，社会上最优的决策更经常地应用预防原则。

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