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Optimists, Pessimists, and the Precautionary Principle

机译:乐观主义者,悲观主义者和预防原则

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摘要

The precautionary principle has emerged as a leading guide to public decision-making about environmental risks under irreversibility and uncertainty. In this paper, we adopt a two-period model with irreversibility and agents differentiated by their degree of optimism to characterize the conditions under which the precautionary principle applies. We show in particular that it is more often applied if the decision-maker has an intermediate optimism index, if scientific research is more effective at reducing uncertainty, and if the same decision-maker makes the decisions for both periods. Moreover, we show that socially optimal decisions lead to apply the precautionary principle more often than an elected decision-maker does.
机译:预防原则已成为在不可逆转和不确定性下对环境风险的公共决策的领先指南。在本文中,我们采用了一种双周期模型,其具有不可逆性和代理的乐观程度,以表征预防原理适用的条件。如果政策制定者具有中间乐观指数,如果科学研究在减少不确定性方面更有效,以及同样的决策者对两期决定做出决定,那么我们更常用。 Moreover, we show that socially optimal decisions lead to apply the precautionary principle more often than an elected decision-maker does.

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