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Climate Change Interactions with Agriculture, Forestry Sequestration, and Food Security

机译：气候变化与农业，林业固存和粮食安全的相互作用

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Climate change can negatively affect crop productivity decreasing food production in many regions across the world. Literature suggests forest carbon sequestration (FCS) is a good alternative to mitigate climate change due to its ability to sequester carbon at low cost. Nevertheless, FCS subsidies have not been addressed together with impacts on food security and climate change reduced crop yields. In our multidisciplinary work, we collected the crop yield shocks from global circulation-crop modeling. We also developed a new version of a computable general equilibrium model for the economic analysis. Thus, we evaluate the global economic impacts of using carbon taxes and FCS to achieve 50% emission reductions. We find that implementing an aggressive FCS incentive can cause substantial increases in food prices because of land competition between forest and crop production. Without climate induced yield reductions, FCS is attractive, but not with the yield reductions. With the climate induced yield shocks, food price increases are huge-so large that it is clear this approach could not be adopted in the real world. The results cry out for investment in agricultural research on climate adaptation. Our findings suggest economic well-being falls more without mitigation than with 50% emission reductions.
机译：气候变化可能会对作物生产力产生负面影响，从而降低世界许多地区的粮食产量。文献表明，森林碳封存（FCS）是缓解气候变化的一个很好的选择，因为它能够以较低的成本封存碳。然而，FCS补贴并未得到解决，同时对粮食安全和气候变化的影响也降低了作物的单产。在我们的多学科工作中，我们从全球循环作物模型中收集了农作物产量的冲击。我们还为经济分析开发了可计算的一般均衡模型的新版本。因此，我们评估了使用碳税和FCS实现50％的减排量对全球经济的影响。我们发现，由于森林和农作物生产之间的土地竞争，实施积极的FCS激励措施可能导致食品价格大幅上涨。如果没有气候导致的单产下降，FCS具有吸引力，但单产却没有。由于气候引发的产量冲击，食品价格上涨幅度巨大，以至于很明显，这种方法无法在现实世界中采用。研究结果大受投资于气候适应农业研究的影响。我们的研究结果表明，如果不采取缓解措施，经济福祉的下降幅度要比减少50％的排放量更大。

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