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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetative Agriculture Markets in Israel
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Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetative Agriculture Markets in Israel

机译：气候变化对以色列营养农业市场的经济影响

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摘要

We integrate the combined agricultural production effects of forecasted changes in CO2, temperature and precipitation into a multi-regional, country-wide partial equilibrium positive mathematical programming model. By conducting a meta-analysis of 2103 experimental observations from 259 agronomic studies we estimate production functions relating yields to CO2 concentration and temperature for 55 crops. We apply the model to simulate climate change in Israel based on 15 agricultural production regions. Downscaled projections for CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation were derived from three general circulation models and four representative concentration pathways, showing temperature increase and precipitation decline throughout most of the county during the future periods 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Given the constrained regional freshwater and non-freshwater quotas, farmers will adapt by partial abandonment of agriculture lands, increasing focus on crops grown in controlled environments at the expense of open-field and rain-fed crops. Both agricultural production and prices decline, leading to reduced agricultural revenues; nevertheless, production costs reduce at a larger extent such that farming profits increase. As total consumer surplus also augments, overall social welfare rises. We find that this outcome is reversed if the positive fertilization effects of increased CO2 concentrations are overlooked.
机译：我们将预测的CO2，温度和降水变化的综合农业生产效应整合到一个多区域，全国范围的局部均衡正数学规划模型中。通过对259个农艺学研究中2103个实验观察结果进行荟萃分析，我们估算了55种作物的生产函数，这些函数将产量与CO2浓度和温度相关。我们基于15个农业生产地区，将该模型应用于模拟以色列的气候变化。对二氧化碳浓度，温度和降水的缩比例预测是从三个总体循环模型和四个代表性的浓度路径得出的，显示了未来2041-2060年和2061-2080年全县大部分地区的温度升高和降水下降。鉴于该地区淡水和非淡水配额有限，农民将通过部分放弃农用土地来适应气候变化，而将重点放在可控环境下种植的农作物上，而这会损失农田和雨养作物。农业生产和价格下降，导致农业收入减少；但是，生产成本在很大程度上降低了，从而增加了农业利润。随着总消费者剩余的增加，总体社会福利也在增加。我们发现，如果忽略了增加CO2浓度的积极施肥作用，这种结果将被逆转。

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