气候对农户的影响存在于以农户为中心的两阶段价值链(生产和产后环节)中,农户收入是气候直接影响和农户为规避气候风险调整生产经营行为的结果.基于阿克苏地区2011～2014年316户枣农微观面板数据,在Ricardian模型理论基础上提出气候-两阶段影响模型,运用考虑气候影响的随机系数模型,构建全要素适应性生产函数模型.研究表明:4～8月生长期和9～10月成熟期气温升高对农户增加收入有利,但农户对极端高温的适应能力不足;4～8月主产区降水增加对农户的影响利大于弊,9～10月成熟期降水增加使农户不可避免陷入由气候导致的市场风险;生产阶段气温升高使肥料的产出弹性下降,降水增加使肥料的产出弹性上升,农药的产出弹性下降,气候变化导致农业成本增加,农户适应气候变化的农业调整行为不科学.为保证农户收入安全,农户在生产和产后阶段气候适应能力亟待提高,尤其应充分考虑产后阶段的气候适应性措施.%The impact of climate change on the farmers exists in the two stages (production and sale) of the value chain.Household income is a comprehensive result of climate change impact and risk-adjusted behavior.Based on 316 jujube farmers' panel data in Aksu 2011-2014,this paper constructed a total factor adaptive production function model using the climate-related random coefficient modeland Ricardian model theory.The results showed that the temperature increasing in growing season (April to August) and maturity season (September to October)had positive impacts on household income,but the farmers lacked the ability to adapt to extreme high temperature.Precipitation in growing season (April to August) can compensate the harm of water deficit.However more precipitation in maturity season (September to October) seriously affected jujube quality and sales.In addition,with the growing of temperature,the output elasticity of fertilizers decreased which meant the increase of organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer costs.Climate change resulted in the increase of the agriculture costs,and the adaptive behavior of farmers was unscientific.To ensure the safety of farmers' income,farmers' adaptive capacity needed to be improved in production and sale stage,such as strengthening agricultural meteorological information early warning and prevention-control,promoting agricultural science and technology,accelerating the construction of modern circulation system of agricultural products,and encouraging farmers to build warehousing facilities.
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