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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Linking with Uncertainty: The Relationship Between EU ETS Pollution Permits and Kyoto Offsets
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Linking with Uncertainty: The Relationship Between EU ETS Pollution Permits and Kyoto Offsets

机译：与不确定性联系：欧盟排放交易体系污染许可证与京都议定书抵消之间的关系

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摘要

Carbon offsets from the Kyoto Flexible Mechanisms can be used by firms in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme for compliance in lieu of EU allowances, making these carbon assets interchangeable. We offer an explanation of the price spread using a structural model of the price for Certified Emissions Reductions that combines three features: a limit for the use of Kyoto offsets within the EU ETS; a disconnect between the current price of offsets and their marginal cost of production for institutional reasons; and uncertainty about future supply and demand of offsets. Our model expresses the offset price as an average of the EU allowance price and an offset's outside value, weighted by the probability of a binding import limit. Using a monthly series of the United Nation's Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation about offset supply and demand, we provide empirical support for our theory of offset price formation. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the price process is dominated by uncertainty.
机译：欧盟排放交易计划中的公司可以使用《京都议定书》弹性机制的碳补偿来代替欧盟的配额，从而使这些碳资产可以互换。我们使用认证的减排量价格的结构模型结合三个特征来提供价差的解释：欧盟排放交易体系中使用京都碳补偿的限制；由于制度上的原因，抵消的当前价格与其边际生产成本之间的脱节；以及未来抵消的供求关系的不确定性。我们的模型将抵销价格表示为欧盟配额价格的平均值和抵销的外部价值，并由具有约束力的进口限制的概率加权。我们使用每月的联合国清洁发展机制和关于抵消性供需的联合实施系列报告，为抵消性价格形成理论提供了经验支持。反事实模拟表明，价格过程受不确定性支配。

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