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Greening the South Africa's Economy Could Benefit the Food Sector: Evidence from a Carbon Tax Policy Assessment

机译:绿化南非的经济可能使食品部门受益:碳税政策评估的证据

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摘要

South Africa has a competitive and viable food production sector which enables the country to be a consistent net exporter of agricultural products. Lately, the business and labour organisations have raised concerns that the government's intention to implement the carbon tax policy will affect the food supply, subsequently exacerbating the unemployment and food insecurity in the country. Carbon tax is one of the policy tools to be implemented in order to reduce the growing greenhouse gas emissions thus helping the government meets its Paris Agreement commitments. South Africa's National Treasury released a second draft of the carbon tax bill in 2017, which takes into account the concerns raised by different organisations. In this paper, we evaluate the potential impact of the carbon tax policy on agriculture, food and other sectors using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results show that the carbon tax is an effective policy tool to mitigate emissions, as they decline by 33% relative to the baseline by 2035. This also leads to a welfare loss of R98.326 billion as the country transforms into a green economy. The carbon-intensive sectors like transport, steel and coal-generated electricity experiences significant output decline. However, the agriculture and food sectors show improvements in terms of jobs and production when the carbon tax is implemented. The positive effects on these two sectors are greatly reduced if tax exemptions provided to the agricultural sector are removed and the tax revenue is not recycled in the form of production subsidy to industries.
机译:南非拥有一个竞争激烈且可行的食品生产部门,这使该国成为了稳定的农产品净出口国。最近,商业和劳工组织担心政府实施碳税政策的意图将影响粮食供应,从而加剧该国的失业和粮食不安全状况。碳税是为减少日益增长的温室气体排放量而要实施的政策工具之一,从而帮助政府履行其《巴黎协定》的承诺。南非国家财政部在2017年发布了第二份碳税法案草案,其中考虑了不同组织提出的担忧。在本文中,我们使用动态可计算的一般均衡模型评估碳税政策对农业,食品和其他部门的潜在影响。结果表明,碳税是减轻排放的有效政策工具,因为到2035年碳排放量相对于基准减少了33%。随着该国向绿色经济转型,碳税也导致983.26亿兰特的福利损失。交通,钢铁和煤炭发电等碳密集型行业的产量大幅下降。但是,实施碳税后,农业和食品部门的工作和生产有所改善。如果取消对农业部门的免税规定,并且不以工业生产补贴的形式回收税收,则对这两个部门的积极影响将大大降低。

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