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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Stated Preferences for Conservation Policies Under Uncertainty: Insights on the Effect of Individuals' Risk Attitudes in the Environmental Domain
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Stated Preferences for Conservation Policies Under Uncertainty: Insights on the Effect of Individuals' Risk Attitudes in the Environmental Domain

机译：在不确定性下的保护政策的偏好：关于个人风险在环境领域态度的效果的见解

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摘要

The outcome of a conservation policy is often subject to uncertainty. In stated preference valuation, it is increasingly recognised that uncertainty affects preferences for the outcomes of environmental policies. However, there is also agreement that the effect of uncertainty and people's attitudes towards risk need to be better understood. To shed more light on the impact of risk, we designed a discrete choice experiment to compare preferences for environmental outcomes under climate change across two split samples. Each sample was confronted with a scenario where results were presented as certain or uncertain, but were otherwise associated with the same expected values. We found significant differences between the certain and the uncertain treatment, with uncertain outcomes being associated with more extreme utility levels and willingness to pay, in absolute terms. This finding was confirmed irrespective of whether gains or losses were considered and despite sensitivity to uncertaintyspecific to the socio-demographic profile. Our results suggest that individuals are not risk neutral in the presence of uncertainty around environmental outcomes. These findings are crucial to better understand stated preferences for conservation policies in risky contexts. Our results reinforce the idea that uncertainty should be explicitly incorporated in the design of stated preference studies to better inform policy.
机译：保护政策的结果往往受不确定性的影响。在说明的偏好估值中，越来越认识到，不确定性影响环境政策结果的偏好。但是，还有人认为不确定和人们对风险的态度的影响需要更好地理解。在风险的影响下揭示了更轻的，我们设计了一个离散的选择实验，以比较两个分裂样本的气候变化下的环境结果的偏好。每个样品都面临着一种情况，其中结果被呈现为某些或不确定，而是与相同的预期值相关联。我们在某些和不确定的待遇之间发现了显着的差异，不确定的结果与绝对术语有关的结果与更极端的效用水平和愿意支付。无论是否考虑获得增益或损失，都是确认这一发现，尽管对社会人口统计学概况有敏感性，但仍然敏感。我们的研究结果表明，在环境结果周围存在不确定性的情况下，个人并不是风险中立。这些发现对于更好地理解风险背景下的保护政策的偏好至关重要。我们的结果加强了不确定应明确纳入所述偏好研究的设计，以更好地通知政策。

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