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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Stated Preferences for Conservation Policies Under Uncertainty: Insights on the Effect of Individuals' Risk Attitudes in the Environmental Domain
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Stated Preferences for Conservation Policies Under Uncertainty: Insights on the Effect of Individuals' Risk Attitudes in the Environmental Domain

机译：不确定条件下的保护政策陈述偏好：对个人风险态度在环境领域的影响的见解

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摘要

The outcome of a conservation policy is often subject to uncertainty. In stated preference valuation, it is increasingly recognised that uncertainty affects preferences for the outcomes of environmental policies. However, there is also agreement that the effect of uncertainty and people's attitudes towards risk need to be better understood. To shed more light on the impact of risk, we designed a discrete choice experiment to compare preferences for environmental outcomes under climate change across two split samples. Each sample was confronted with a scenario where results were presented as certain or uncertain, but were otherwise associated with the same expected values. We found significant differences between the certain and the uncertain treatment, with uncertain outcomes being associated with more extreme utility levels and willingness to pay, in absolute terms. This finding was confirmed irrespective of whether gains or losses were considered and despite sensitivity to uncertaintyspecific to the socio-demographic profile. Our results suggest that individuals are not risk neutral in the presence of uncertainty around environmental outcomes. These findings are crucial to better understand stated preferences for conservation policies in risky contexts. Our results reinforce the idea that uncertainty should be explicitly incorporated in the design of stated preference studies to better inform policy.
机译：一项保护政策的结果常常受到不确定性的影响。在陈述的偏好评估中，人们越来越认识到不确定性会影响对环境政策结果的偏好。但是，也有人认为，不确定性的影响和人们对风险的态度需要更好地理解。为了更加了解风险的影响，我们设计了一个离散选择实验，以比较两个拆分样本在气候变化下对环境结果的偏好。每个样本都面临着这样一种情况，即结果显示为确定或不确定，但以其他方式与相同的预期值相关。我们发现，确定的治疗方法和不确定的治疗方法之间存在显着差异，以绝对值计算，不确定的结果与更极端的效用水平和付款意愿相关。不管是否考虑了收益或损失，并且尽管对社会人口统计学特征的不确定性敏感，这一发现仍得到了证实。我们的结果表明，在围绕环境结果存在不确定性的情况下，个人并不具有风险中性。这些发现对于更好地了解在风险情况下对保护政策的既定偏好至关重要。我们的结果强化了这样一种想法，即在明确的偏好研究的设计中应明确纳入不确定性，以更好地为政策提供依据。

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