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Climate Change and Adaptation: The Case of Nigerian Agriculture

机译：气候变化与适应：尼日利亚农业的案例

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摘要

The present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture. The evaluation is performed by shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate Nigerian economic development up to 2050. The detail of land uses in the model has been increased by differentiating land types per agro-ecological zones. Uncertainty about future climate is captured, using, as inputs, yield changes computed by a crop model under ten general circulation models runs. Climate change turns out to be negative for Nigeria in the medium term, with production losses and increase in crop prices, higher food dependency on foreign imports, and GDP losses in all the simulations after 2025. In a second part of the paper, a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in Nigerian agriculture is conducted. The adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper "soft measures" and more costly "hard" irrigation expansion. The main result is that the cost effectiveness of the whole package depends crucially on the possibility of implementing adaptation by exploiting low-cost opportunities which show a benefit-cost ratio larger than one in all the climate regimes.
机译：本研究对气候变化对尼日利亚农业的四个主要农作物家庭的影响进行了经济评估。该评估是通过在可计算的一般均衡模型中震撼土地生产率而进行的，该模型旨在复制尼日利亚到2050年的经济发展。通过区分每个农业生态区的土地类型，增加了模型中土地用途的详细信息。使用十种一般循环模式下的作物模型计算出的单产变化作为输入，来获取未来气候的不确定性。在2025年之后的所有模拟中，气候变化在中期对尼日利亚都是不利的，包括生产损失和作物价格上涨，食品对外国进口的依赖性增加以及GDP损失。在本文的第二部分，成本进行了尼日利亚农业适应的有效性分析。所考虑的适应措施是较便宜的“软措施”和较昂贵的“硬”灌溉扩展的混合。主要结果是，整个一揽子计划的成本效益在很大程度上取决于能否通过利用低成本机会来实施适应措施，这些机会在所有气候制度中的成本效益比都大于一个。

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