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Fuel Efficiency Improvements: Feedback Mechanisms and Distributional Effects in the Oil Market

机译：改善燃油效率：石油市场中的反馈机制和分配效应

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摘要

We study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world. We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect, carbon leakage and the "green paradox", but also the distributional effects for oil producers. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is introduced, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. We find that the rebound effect has a noticeable effect on the transport sector, with the magnitude depending on the oil demand elasticity. In the benchmark simulations, we calculate that almost half of the energy savings may be lost to a direct rebound effect and an additional 10% to oil price adjustments. In addition, there is substantial intersectoral leakage to other sectors through lower oil prices in the regions that introduce the policy. There is a small green paradox effect in the sense that oil consumption increases initially when the fuel efficiency measures are gradually implemented. Finally, international carbon leakage will be significant if policies are not implemented in all regions; we estimate leakage rates of 35% or higher when only major consuming regions implement fuel economy policies. Non-OPEC producers will to a larger degree than OPEC producers cut back on its oil supply as a response to fuel efficiency policies due to high production costs.
机译：我们研究了交通运输部门的燃油效率提高与石油市场之间的相互作用，在世界某些地区，效率提高是政策引发的。我们对燃料效率的反馈机制特别感兴趣，例如回弹效应，碳泄漏和“绿色悖论”，以及对石油生产商的分配效应。引入了国际石油市场的跨期数值模型，在该模型中，OPEC-Core生产商具有市场支配力。我们发现回弹效应对运输部门有显着影响，其幅度取决于石油需求弹性。在基准模拟中，我们计算出，直接反弹效应可能会损失近一半的能源节省，而油价调整会额外损失10％。此外，在实行该政策的地区，较低的石油价格导致其他部门之间的大量跨部门泄漏。从某种意义上来说，绿色的悖论效应很小，即逐步实施燃油效率措施时，油耗最初会增加。最后，如果不在所有地区都实施政策，国际碳泄漏将很严重；我们估计，仅在主要消耗地区实施燃油经济政策时，泄漏率为35％或更高。非欧佩克生产国将比欧佩克生产国更大程度地减少其石油供应，这是由于高生产成本而对燃油效率政策的回应。

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