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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia
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Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia

机译：估算气候变化对低收入国家农业的影响：埃塞俄比亚尼罗河流域的家庭水平证据

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摘要

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in a typical developing country. The economic implications of climate change are estimated by using both a farm productivity and a Ricardian framework. Data are drawn from about 1,000 farms producing cereal crops in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The thin plate spline method of spatial interpolation was used to predict household specific rainfall and temperature values using meteorological station data collected for 30 years across the regions. We found that climate change adaptation has a significant impact on both farm productivity and farm net revenues. We complement the analysis by providing an estimation of the determinants of adaptation. Extension services (both formal and farmer to farmer), as well as access to credit and information on future climate changes are key drivers of adaptation.
机译：本文对典型发展中国家气候变化对农业的影响进行了实证分析。通过使用农业生产力和里卡德框架来估算气候变化的经济影响。数据来自埃塞俄比亚尼罗河流域约1,000个生产谷物作物的农场。利用空间插值的薄板样条方法，使用跨地区30年的气象站数据来预测家庭的特定降雨和温度值。我们发现，适应气候变化对农场生产力和农场净收入都有重大影响。我们通过提供适应决定因素的估计来补充分析。推广服务（正式服务和从农民到农民的服务）以及获得信贷和有关未来气候变化的信息是适应的主要驱动力。

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