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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental & Resource Economics >Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data
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Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data

机译：环境风险和避免行为：联合估计的揭示和陈述的行为数据的预测有效性

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摘要

We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction, we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with a small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.
机译：我们使用来自北卡罗来纳州沿海家庭的面板调查中揭示和陈述的行为数据进行预测有效性测试。该应用程序是飓风疏散行为。最初的数据是在1998年邦妮飓风导致北卡罗莱纳州飓风撤离后收集的。受访者被问及他们的行为意图是因为飓风在1999年飓风季节威胁北卡罗莱纳州沿海地区。在1999年飓风丹尼斯和弗洛伊德之后，进行了一项后续调查，以查看受访者的行为是否符合预期。联合估计的揭示和陈述的行为模型表明，假设的和实际的疏散行为是基于相同的选择过程。通过使用该模型的假设偏差校正进行预测，我们发现它可以预测实际的疏散行为，并且预测误差较小。这些结果表明，陈述的行为数据具有一定程度的预测效度。

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