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Incentives for Technology Adoption Under Environmental Policy Uncertainty: Implications for Green Payment Programs

机译：环境政策不确定性下的技术采用激励措施：对绿色支付计划的影响

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Water quality protection policy in the United States has been based on the provision of financial incentives to farmers for adopting improved nutrient management practices. Increasing reliance on subsidy programs could result in expectations for such programs in the future. Using an option-value model that indicates uncertainty can lead to a delay in investment, this paper analyzes the extent to which uncertainty about cost-share subsidy policies would impact adoption decision. Application of the model to adoption of site-specific technologies indicates that uncertainty about subsidy policies has the potential to impact the investment decision. When there is currently no cost-share subsidy, an increase in the probability of an expected policy delays adoption. If the policy is in effect, an increase in the probability of a withdrawal of the program encourages investment. Cost-share subsidy policy is most effective when it is immediately offered and guaranteed that it will be removed soon.
机译：美国的水质保护政策基于向农民提供经济激励措施，以采取改进的养分管理方法。越来越依赖补贴计划可能会导致对此类计划的期望。使用表明不确定性会导致投资延迟的期权价值模型，本文分析了成本分摊补贴政策的不确定性对采用决策的影响程度。该模型应用于特定地点技术的应用表明，补贴政策的不确定性可能会影响投资决策。当前没有成本分摊补贴时，预期政策的可能性会增加，延迟采用。如果该政策有效，则撤消该计划的可能性会增加投资。成本分摊补贴政策在立即提供并保证不久后将被取消时最为有效。

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