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Climate Change and the Irreversibility Effect ―Combining Expected Utility and MaxiMin

机译:气候变化和不可逆转效应―结合预期效用和MaxiMin

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This paper analyzes decisions on emissions of a stock pollutant under uncertainty in a two period model. Decisions are based on a weighted average of expected utility (EU) and the MaxiMin criterion. I first show that more weight on the worst case (less weight on EU) may lead to increased first period emissions. The effect of learning possibilities on emissions is not clear in general, but depends qualitatively on the weight given to MaxiMin: For the quadratic utility case, considering prospective learning increases today's abatement effort, i.e. the "irreversibility effect" holds, if the weight on EU is small. This contrasts standard results on the irreversibility effect for EU which translates to small weights on MaxiMin. There is, however, the possibility of a negative value of learning. It is shown that the irreversibility effect holds if and only if the value of learning is negative. Consequences for the applicability of generalized EU-MaxiMin are discussed.
机译:本文在两阶段模型中分析了在不确定性下关于一种污染物的排放的决策。决策基于预期效用(EU)的加权平均值和MaxiMin标准。我首先表明,在最坏的情况下增加权重(在欧盟范围内减少权重)可能会导致第一期排放量增加。一般而言,学习可能性对排放的影响尚不清楚,但在质量上取决于赋予MaxiMin的权重:对于二次效用案例,考虑前瞻性学习会增加当今的减排努力,即如果对欧盟的权重保持不变,则“不可逆性效应”成立是小。这与欧盟的不可逆转效果的标准结果形成对比,后者对MaxiMin的影响很小。但是,存在消极学习价值的可能性。结果表明,当且仅当学习价值为负时,不可逆性效应才成立。讨论了广义EU-MaxiMin适用性的后果。

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