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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Geology >Change detection and prediction of urban land use changes by CA-Markov model (case study: Talesh County)
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Change detection and prediction of urban land use changes by CA-Markov model (case study: Talesh County)

机译：基于CA-Markov模型的城市土地利用变化的变化检测与预测（案例研究：塔列什县）

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摘要

Earth's surface has continued to change due to human activities and natural reasons. Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one of the significant issues which has considerable impacts on environment and its processes. Access to precise and up-to-date data of LULC through satellite images provides a great opportunity to detect, monitor and model a prediction of the future changes. The purpose of this research is to monitor and study land use changes, especially in urban land, during the past years and the possibility of predicting future changes by CA-Markov in Talesh County. In this research, satellite imagery of ETM 2000, LISS III 2007 and OLI-TIRS 2014 have been used. Supervised classification of images is done using the maximum likelihood method. Then the accuracy of the generated land use maps was evaluated using the overall accuracy and kappa coefficients. The results of the evaluation showed that land use maps from 2000, 2007 and 2014 had kappa coefficients equal to 0.86, 0.85 and 0.89, respectively, and an overall accuracy of 91%, 90%, and 93%. The land use map for 2028 has been predicted by the CA-Markov model. The results of the model forecast indicate a significant increase in the size of finished and urban areas by 29/83% and a reduction of the area of agricultural land, forests, and wastelands, respectively, to the 3/12, 0.59, and 0.48% over the next 14 years in the area under study. The model also showed that the future development of the city would occur linearly and mainly around the city of Hashtpar, especially on the western and eastern borders of the city.
机译：由于人类活动和自然原因，地球表面持续变化。土地利用和土地覆被（LULC）的变化是对环境及其过程产生重大影响的重要问题之一。通过卫星图像访问LULC的精确和最新数据，为检测，监视和模拟未来变化的预测提供了绝佳的机会。这项研究的目的是监视和研究过去几年中土地使用的变化，尤其是城市土地的变化，以及通过CA-Markov预测塔利什县未来变化的可能性。在这项研究中，使用了ETM 2000，LISS III 2007和OLI-TIRS 2014的卫星图像。使用最大似然法对图像进行监督分类。然后，使用总体准确性和kappa系数评估生成的土地利用图的准确性。评估结果表明，2000年，2007年和2014年的土地利用图的kappa系数分别等于0.86、0.85和0.89，总体准确度为91％，90％和93％。 CA-Markov模型已经预测了2028年的土地利用图。模型预测的结果表明，已完成和城市区域的大小显着增加29/83％，而农业用地，森林和荒地的面积分别减少到3 / 12、0.59和0.48在接下来的14年中，该研究区域所占的百分比。该模型还表明，该城市的未来发展将线性发生，并且主要在Hashtpar周围，尤其是在城市的西部和东部边界。

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