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Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Anthropogenic Development on Priority Bird Species Habitats in Coastal Georgia, USA

机译:海平面上升和人为发展对美国乔治亚州沿海地区优先鸟类栖息地的影响

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摘要

We modeled changes in area of five habitats, tidal-freshwater forest, salt marsh, maritime shrub-scrub (shrub), maritime broadleaf forest (oak) and maritime narrowleaf (pine) forest, in coastal Georgia, USA, to evaluate how simultaneous habitat loss due to predicted changes in sea level rise (SLR) and urban development will affect priority bird species of the south Atlantic coastal plain by 2100. Development rates, based on regional growth plans, were modeled at 1% and 2.5% annual urban growth, while SLR rates, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B mean and maximum scenarios, were modeled at 52 cm and 82 cm, respectively. SLR most greatly affected the shrub habitat with predicted losses of 35—43%. Salt marsh and tidal forest also were predicted to lose considerable area to SLR (20-45 and 23-35%, respectively), whereas oak and pine forests had lesser impact from SLR, 18-22% and 11-15%, respectively. Urban development resulted in losses of considerable pine (48-49%) and oak (53-55%) habitat with lesser loss of shrub habitat (21-24%). Under maximum SLR and urban growth, shrub habitat may lose up to 59-64% compared to as much as 62-65% pine forest and 74-75% oak forest. Conservation efforts should focus on protection of shrub habitat because of its small area relative to other terrestrial habitats and use by Painted Buntings (Passerina ciris), a Partners In Flight (PIF) extremely high priority species. Tidal forests also deserve protection because they are a likely refuge for forest species, such as Northern Parula and Acadian Flycatcher, with the decline of oak and pine forests due to urban development.
机译:我们对美国乔治亚州沿海的五个生境(潮汐淡水森​​林,盐沼,海洋灌木丛(灌木),海洋阔叶森林(橡树)和海洋窄叶森林(松树))的栖息地变化进行了建模,以评估生境的同时栖息地由于海平面上升(SLR)和城市发展的预测变化而造成的损失将在2100年之前影响南大西洋沿海平原的优先鸟类。根据区域增长计划,将发展速度模型化为城市年增长率为1%和2.5%,而根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的A1B平均和最大情景得出的单反率分别模拟为52 cm和82 cm。 SLR对灌木生境的影响最大,预计损失为35-43%。盐沼和潮汐森林也被预测会损失相当多的土地(分别为20-45和23-35%),而橡树林和松树林受到SLR的影响较小,分别为18-22%和11-15%。城市发展导致大量的松树生境丧失(48-49%)和橡树生境(53-55%),灌木生境丧失较少(21-24%)。在最大单反和城市增长的情况下,灌木生境可能损失高达59-64%,相比之下,松树林和62-5%的橡树林将损失多达59-64%。由于灌木丛生境相对于其他陆地生境而言面积较小,因此保护工作应重点保护灌木生境,并应将其作为优先飞行物种(PIF)的彩绘Bun(Passerina ciris)使用。潮汐森林也应受到保护,因为它们可能是诸如北比拉和阿卡迪亚捕蝇器之类的森林物种的避难所,而橡树和松树林由于城市发展而衰落。

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