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A system dynamics model for the screening-level long-term assessment of human health risks at contaminated sites

机译：对受污染场所的人类健康风险进行筛查级长期评估的系统动力学模型

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摘要

For the design of sustainable and cost-effective management strategies for contaminated sites, decision makers need appropriate tools, i.e. environmental decision support systems to assist them in the planning, assessment, selection and optimisation of possible alternatives. We propose a novel system dynamics model, CARO-PUJS (Cost-efficiency Analysis of Remediation Options), which provides estimates of current and future risks originating from soil and groundwater contamination. Utilising a source-pathway-receptor concept, the model particularly addresses the presence of multi-compound non-aqueous phase liquids in porous media, which have been identified as major sources of groundwater contamination at many of these sites. Simplified approaches for the description of contaminant release and transport, as well as of exposure pathways for human health risk assessment, allow for a fast and effective screening model, which is particularly qualified to support early decisions within a tiered management approach at contaminated sites. CARO-PLUS is applied to assess the long-term risks originating from a kerosene contamination at a former military airfield in Germany. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to account for the large uncertainty in model parameters at early decision levels. The results of the application show that the implementation of monitored natural attenuation might be a feasible management strategy for the site, and provide guidance for additional, more detailed investigations.
机译：为了设计受污染场地的可持续且具有成本效益的管理策略，决策者需要适当的工具，即环境决策支持系统，以协助他们规划，评估，选择和优化可能的替代方案。我们提出了一种新颖的系统动力学模型CARO-PUJS（补救方案的成本效益分析），该模型提供了对当前和未来源自土壤和地下水污染的风险的估计。该模型利用源-途径-受体的概念，特别解决了多孔介质中多化合物非水相液体的存在，多孔介质中的多化合物非水相液体已被确定为许多这些地点的主要地下水污染源。用于描述污染物释放和运输的简化方法，以及用于人类健康风险评估的暴露途径，可以提供一种快速有效的筛选模型，该模型特别适合于在受污染场所采用分层管理方法进行早期决策。 CARO-PLUS用于评估德国某前军事机场煤油污染引起的长期风险。进行蒙特卡洛模拟以解决早期决策水平上模型参数的巨大不确定性。该应用程序的结果表明，实施监测的自然衰减可能是该地点的可行管理策略，并为进一步，更详细的调查提供指导。

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