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Willow phenological modelling at different altitudes in central Italy

机译：在意大利中部的不同高度的柳毒性造型

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摘要

In order to estimate the impact of climate change on the phenological parameters and to compare them with the historical record, a decision support system (DSS) has been applied employing a Phenological Modelling Platform. Biological observations of two willow species (Salix acutifolia and smithiana Willd) in 3 gardens at different altitudes located in Central Italy were utilized to identify suitable phenological models related to four main vegetative phase timings (BBCH11, BBCH91, BBCH 94, BBCH95), and male full flowering (BBCH 65) clearly identifiable in these species. The present investigation identifies the best phenological models for the main phenophases allowing their practical application as real-time monitoring and plant development prediction tools. Sigmoid model revealed high performances in simulating spring vegetative phases, BBCH11 (First leaves unfolded), and BBCH91 (Shoot and foliage growth completed). Salix acutifolia Willd. development appeared to be more related to temperature amount interpreted by phenological models in comparison to Salix smithiana Willd. above all during spring (BBCH11 and 91), probably due to a different grade of phenotypic plasticity between the 2 considered species.
机译：为了估算气候变化对诸如职业参数的影响，并将其与历史记录进行比较，则采用了一种决策支持系统（DSS），采用了酚类建模平台。在意大利中部地区的不同高度的3个花园中的两种杨柳种类（Salix Acutifolia和Smithiana Willd）的生物学观察用于鉴定与四个主要植物相位定时相关的合适的酚类模型（BBCH11，BBCH91，BBCH 94，BBCH95）和男性满开花（BBCH 65）在这些物种中清晰可识别。本研究鉴定了主要苯酚的最佳候选模型，允许其实际应用作为实时监测和植物开发预测工具。 SIGMOID模型揭示了模拟弹簧营养阶段的高性能，BBCH11（展开展开）和BBCH91（拍摄和叶子增长完成）。 Salix Acutifolia Willd。发展似乎与诸如Salix Smithiana Willd的危皮模型解释的温度量有关。最重要的是在春天（BBCH11和91）期间，可能是由于2所考虑的物种之间的不同等级的表型可塑性。

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