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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental research >Association between vehicular emissions and cardiorespiratory disease risk in Brazil and its variation by spatial clustering of socio-economic factors
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Association between vehicular emissions and cardiorespiratory disease risk in Brazil and its variation by spatial clustering of socio-economic factors

机译：巴西的车辆排放与心肺疾病风险之间的关联及其因社会经济因素的空间聚类而发生的变化

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Many studies have suggested that socio-economic factors are strong modifiers of human vulnerability to air pollution effects. Most of these studies were performed in developed countries, specifically in the US and Europe. Only a few studies have been performed in developing countries, and analyzed small regions (city level) with no spatial disaggregation. The aim of this study was to assess the association between vehicle emissions and cardiorespiratory disease risk in Brazil and its modification by spatial clustering of socio-economic conditions. We used a quantile regression model to estimate the risk and a geostatistical approach (K means) to execute spatial cluster analysis. We performed the risk analysis in three stages. First, we analyzed the entire study area (primary analysis), and then we conducted a spatial cluster analysis based on various municipal-level socio-economic factors, followed by a sensitivity analysis. We studied 5444 municipalities in Brazil between 2008 and 2012. Our findings showed a significant association between cardiorespiratory disease risk and vehicular emissions. We found that a 15% increase in air pollution is associated with a 6% increase in hospital admissions rates. The results from the spatial cluster analysis revealed two groups of municipalities with distinct sets of socio-economic factors and risk levels of cardiorespiratory disease related to exposure to vehicular emissions. For example, for vehicle emissions of PM in 2008, we found a relative risk of 4.18 (95% CI: 3.66,4.93) in the primary analysis; in Croup 1, the risk was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.10, 2.05) while in Group 2, the risk was 5.56 (95% CI: 4.46. 6.25). The risk in Group 2 was 480% higher than the risk in Group 1, and 35% higher than the risk in the primary analysis. Group 1 had higher values (3rd quartile) for urbanization rate, highway density, and GDP; very high values (≥ 3rd quartile) for population density; median values for distance from the capital; and lower values (1st quartile) for rural population density. Group 2 had lower values (1st quartile) urbanization rate; median values for highway density, GDP, and population density; between median and third quartile values for distance from the capital; and higher values (3rd quartile) for rural population density. Our findings suggest that socio-economic factors are important modifiers of the human risk of cardiorespiratory disease due to exposure to vehicle emissions in Brazil. Our study provides support for creating effective public policies related to environmental health that are targeted to high-risk populations.
机译：许多研究表明，社会经济因素是人类易受空气污染影响的重要因素。这些研究大多数在发达国家进行，尤其是在美国和欧洲。在发展中国家仅进行了少量研究，并分析了没有空间分类的小区域（城市水平）。这项研究的目的是评估在巴西，车辆排放与心肺疾病风险之间的关联，以及其因社会经济状况的空间聚类而发生的变化。我们使用分位数回归模型来估计风险，并使用地统计方法（K均值）来执行空间聚类分析。我们分三个阶段进行了风险分析。首先，我们分析了整个研究区域（初步分析），然后我们根据各种市级社会经济因素进行了空间聚类分析，然后进行了敏感性分析。我们研究了2008年至2012年之间巴西的5444个城市。我们的研究结果表明，心肺疾病风险与车辆排放之间存在显着关联。我们发现，空气污染增加15％与住院率增加6％有关。空间聚类分析的结果表明，两组城市的社会经济因素和与暴露于车辆排放物有关的心肺疾病的风险水平各不相同。例如，对于2008年的PM车辆排放，我们在主要分析中发现相对风险为4.18（95％CI：3.66,4.93）。小组1的风险为0.98（95％CI：0.10，2.05），而第二组的风险为5.56（95％CI：4.46。6.25）。第2组的风险比第1组的风险高480％，比主要分析中的风险高35％。第1组的城市化率，公路密度和GDP值较高（第3个四分位数）；人口密度非常高的值（≥第三四分位数）；距首都距离的中位数；农村人口密度较低的值（第一四分位数）。第2组的城市化率较低（第1个四分位数）；公路密度，GDP和人口密度的中位数；距首都的距离在中位数和第三四分位数之间；以及较高的农村人口密度值（第三四分位数）。我们的研究结果表明，社会经济因素是因暴露于巴西的车辆排放而导致人类患心肺疾病的重要因素。我们的研究为制定针对高危人群的与环境健康相关的有效公共政策提供了支持。

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