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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Effect of Health-Related Uncertainty and Natural Variability on Health Impacts and Cobenefits of Climate Policy
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Effect of Health-Related Uncertainty and Natural Variability on Health Impacts and Cobenefits of Climate Policy

机译：与健康有关的不确定性和自然变异性对气候政策对健康的影响和共同效益的影响

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摘要

Climate policy can mitigate health risks attributed to intensifying air pollution under climate change. However, few studies quantify risks of illness and death, examine their contribution to climate policy benefits, or assess their robustness in light of natural climate variability. We employ an integrated modeling framework of the economy, climate, air quality, and human health to quantify the effect of natural variability on U.S. air pollution impacts under future climate and two global policies (2 and 2.5 degrees C stabilization scenarios) using 150 year ensemble simulations for each scenario in 2050 and 2100. Climate change yields annual premature deaths related to fine particulate matter and ozone (95CI: 25 000-120 000), heart attacks (900-9400), and lost work days (3.6M-4.9M) in 2100. It raises air pollution health risks by 20%, while policies avert these outcomes by 40-50% in 2050 and 70-88% in 2100. Natural variability introduces "climate noise", yielding some annual estimates with negative cobenefits, and others that reach 100% of annual policy costs. This "noise" is three times the magnitude of uncertainty (95CI) in health and economic responses in 2050. Averaging five annual simulations reduces this factor to two, which is still substantially larger than health-related uncertainty. This study quantifies the potential for inaccuracy in climate impacts projected using too few annual simulations.
机译：气候政策可以减轻因气候变化导致空气污染加剧而造成的健康风险。但是，很少有研究量化疾病和死亡的风险，检查其对气候政策收益的贡献或根据自然气候变化来评估其健壮性。我们采用经济，气候，空气质量和人类健康的综合建模框架，以量化未来气候下自然可变性对美国空气污染影响的影响以及采用150年合奏的两项全球政策（2和2.5摄氏度的稳定情景）对2050年和2100年每种情景的模拟。气候变化导致与细颗粒物和臭氧（95CI：25 000-120 000），心脏病发作（900-9400）和工作日损失（360万-490万）相关的年度过早死亡。 ）在2100年将空气污染的健康风险提高了20％，而相关政策则在2050年将这些结果避免了40-50％，并在2100年避免了70-88％。自然变异带来了“气候噪声”，产生了一些年度估计值，负共同收益，以及其他达到年度保单成本100％的收益。 “噪声”是2050年卫生和经济响应中不确定性（95CI）的三倍。平均每年进行五次模拟会将这一因素减少到两个，这仍然大大大于与健康相关的不确定性。这项研究使用很少的年度模拟量化了预计的气候影响不准确的可能性。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2019年第3期|1098-1108|共11页
  • 作者

    Saari Rebecca K.; Mei Yufei; Monier Erwan; Garcia-Menendez Fernando;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Waterloo, Civil & Environm Engn, 200 Univ Ave West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada;

    Univ Waterloo, Civil & Environm Engn, 200 Univ Ave West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada;

    MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA|Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA 95616 USA;

    North Carolina State Univ, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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