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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Response of Global Particulate-Matter-Related Mortality to Changes in Local Precursor Emissions
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Response of Global Particulate-Matter-Related Mortality to Changes in Local Precursor Emissions

机译：全球颗粒物相关死亡率对局部前体排放量变化的响应

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摘要

Recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) assessments estimated that outdoor fine-particulate matter (PM_(2.5)) is a causal factor in over 5% of global premature deaths. PM_(2.5) is produced by a variety of direct and indirect, natural and anthropogenic processes that complicate PM_(2.5) management. This study develops a proof-of-concept method to quantify the effects on global premature mortality of changes to PM_(2.5) precursor emissions. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we calculated sensitivities of global PM_(2.5)-related premature mortality to emissions of precursor gases (SO_2, NO_x, NH_3) and carbonaceous aerosols. We used a satellite-derived ground-level PM_(2.5) data set at approximately 10 × 10 km~2 resolution to better align the exposure with population density. We used exposure-response functions from the GBD project to relate mortality to exposure in the adjoint calculation. The response of global mortality to changes in local anthropogenic emissions varied spatially by several orders of magnitude. The largest reductions in mortality for a 1 kg km~(-2) yr~(-1) decrease in emissions were for ammonia and carbonaceous aerosols in Eastern Europe. The greatest reductions in mortality for a 10% decrease in emissions were found for secondary inorganic sources in East Asia. In general, a 10% decrease in SO_2 emissions was the most effective source to control, but regional exceptions were found.
机译：最近的全球疾病负担（GBD）评估估计，室外细颗粒物（PM_（2.5））是造成全球过早死亡的5％以上的原因。 PM_（2.5）是由多种直接和间接，自然和人为过程产生的，这些过程使PM_（2.5）的管理变得复杂。这项研究开发了一种概念验证方法来量化PM_（2.5）前驱体排放变化对全球过早死亡率的影响。使用GEOS-Chem化学迁移模型的伴随函数，我们计算了与PM_（2.5）有关的全球过早死亡率对前体气体（SO_2，NO_x，NH_3）和碳质气溶胶排放的敏感性。我们使用卫星衍生的地面PM_（2.5）数据集，分辨率大约为10×10 km〜2，以更好地使暴露与人口密度保持一致。我们使用了GBD项目中的暴露量响应函数，在伴随计算中将死亡率与暴露量相关联。全球死亡率对当地人为排放量变化的响应在空间上变化了几个数量级。排放量每减少1 kg km〜（-2）yr〜（-1），死亡率下降最大的是东欧的氨和碳质气溶胶。东亚的次要无机资源的死亡率降低幅度最大，排放量降低了10％。通常，SO_2排放量减少10％是最有效的控制来源，但是发现了区域例外。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2015年第7期|4335-4344|共10页
  • 作者

    Colin J. Lee; Randall V. Martin; Daven K. Henze; Michael Brauer; Aaron Cohen; Aaron van Donkelaar;

  • 作者单位

    Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada;

    Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada,Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States;

    University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, United States;

    School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada;

    Health Effects Institute, Boston, Massachusetts 02110-1817, United States;

    Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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