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A Bayesian Network for Assessing the Collision Induced Risk of an Oil Accident in the Gulf of Finland

机译：贝叶斯网络用于评估芬兰湾发生油污事故的碰撞风险

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摘要

The growth of maritime oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland (GoF), North-Eastern Baltic Sea, increases environmental risks by increasing the probability of oil accidents. By integrating the work of a multidisciplinary research team and information from several sources, we have developed a probabilistic risk assessment application that considers the likely future development of maritime traffic and oil transportation in the area and the resulting risk of environmental pollution. This metamodel is used to compare the effects of two preventative management actions on the tanker collision probabilities and the consequent risk. The resulting risk is evaluated from four different perspectives. Bayesian networks enable large amounts of information about causalities to be integrated and utilized in probabilistic inference. Compared with the baseline period of 2007-2008, the worst-case scenario is that the risk level increases 4-fold by the year 2015. The management measures are evaluated and found to decrease the risk by 4-13%, but the utility gained by their joint implementation would be less than the sum of their independent effects. In addition to the results concerning the varying risk levels, the application provides interesting information about the relationships between the different elements of the system.
机译：东北波罗的海芬兰湾（GoF）中海上石油运输的增长，通过增加石油事故的可能性而增加了环境风险。通过整合一个多学科研究团队的工作和来自多个来源的信息，我们开发了一个概率风险评估应用程序，该应用程序考虑了该地区海上交通和石油运输的未来可能发展以及由此带来的环境污染风险。该元模型用于比较两种预防性管理措施对油轮碰撞概率及其后果的影响。从四个不同的角度评估所产生的风险。贝叶斯网络使有关因果关系的大量信息得以集成并用于概率推理。与2007-2008年的基准期相比，最坏的情况是到2015年，风险水平将增加4倍。评估了管理措施，发现降低了4-13％的风险，但获得了效用他们共同执行的结果将小于其独立影响的总和。除了涉及变化的风险级别的结果之外，该应用程序还提供了有关系统不同元素之间关系的有趣信息。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2015年第9期|5301-5309|共9页
  • 作者

    Annukka Lehikoinen; Maria Haenninen; Jenni Storgard; Emilia Luoma; Samu Maentyniemi; Sakari Kuikka;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, Kotka Maritime Research Center, University of Helsinki, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland;

    School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Aalto University, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland;

    Centre for Maritime Studies, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, University of Turku, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland;

    Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 65, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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