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Consequence of Climate Mitigation on the Risk of Hunger

机译：气候缓解对饥饿风险的影响

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摘要

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 ℃. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 ℃ target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.
机译：气候变化和缓解措施对粮食消费和饥饿风险具有三大影响：（1）气候变化引起的农作物产量变化； （2）利用生物能源推动粮食作物和能源作物之间的土地竞争； （3）为实现将全球平均温度保持在2℃的减排目标而采取的缓解措施的相关成本。在这项研究中，我们结合了全球可计算的一般均衡模型和农作物模型（M-GAEZ），并基于与12种气候模型以及一种经济和人口情况相关的不确定性范围，量化了到2050年对饥饿风险的三种影响。 。旨在实现2℃目标的强有力的缓解措施减少了气候变化对单产的负面影响，但由于低收入国家的缓解成本，对饥饿风险产生了很大的负面影响。我们还发现，在一个碳严重受限的世界中，缓解措施导致的食品消费变化比收入的变化更重要地取决于收入的变化，而不是食品价格的变化。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2015年第12期|7245-7253|共9页
  • 作者

    Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Yonghee Shin; Akemi Tanaka; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Toshihiko Masui;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan;

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan;

    Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center, 12 Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan, Gyeongsang, 612-020, Republic of Korea;

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan;

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan;

    Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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