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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Emission Projections for Long-Haul Freight Trucks and Rail in the United States through 2050
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Emission Projections for Long-Haul Freight Trucks and Rail in the United States through 2050

机译：到2050年美国长途货运卡车和铁路的排放预测

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摘要

This work develops an integrated model approach for estimating emissions from long-haul freight truck and rail transport in the United States between 2010 and 2050. We connect models of macroeconomic activity, freight demand by commodity, transportation networks, and emission technology to represent different pathways of future freight emissions. Emissions of particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and total hydrocarbon (THC) decrease by 60%- 70% from 2010 to 2030, as older vehicles built to less-stringent emission standards retire. Climate policy, in the form of carbon tax that increases apparent fuel prices, causes a shift from truck to rail, resulting in a 30% reduction in fuel consumption and a 10%-28% reduction in pollutant emissions by 2050, if rail capacity is sufficient. Eliminating high-emitting conditions in the truck fleet affects air pollutants by 20% to 65%; although these estimates are highly uncertain, they indicate the importance of durability in vehicle engines and emission control systems. Future infrastructure investment will be required both to meet transport demand and to enable actions that reduce emissions of air and climate pollutants. By driving the integrated model framework with two macroeconomic scenarios, we show that the effect of carbon tax on air pollution is robust regardless of growth levels.
机译：这项工作开发了一种综合模型方法，用于估算2010年至2050年美国长途货运卡车和铁路运输的排放。我们将宏观经济活动，按商品划分的货运需求，运输网络和排放技术的模型联系起来，以代表不同的途径未来的货运排放量。从2010年到2030年，随着按照较低严格排放标准制造的老式车辆的退役，颗粒物（PM），一氧化碳（CO），氮氧化物（NO_x）和总碳氢化合物（THC）的排放量减少了60％至70％。以碳税形式出现的气候政策会提高表观燃料价格，从而导致从卡车转向铁路，如果铁路容量达到2050年，则燃料消耗减少30％，污染物排放减少10％-28％。足够。消除卡车车队的高排放条件可将空气污染物影响20％至65％；尽管这些估计是高度不确定的，但它们表明了耐久性在车辆发动机和排放控制系统中的重要性。将需要未来的基础设施投资，以满足运输需求并采取行动减少空气和气候污染物的排放。通过在两个宏观经济情景下驱动综合模型框架，我们表明，无论增长水平如何，碳税对空气污染的影响都是强大的。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2015年第19期|11569-11576|共8页
  • 作者

    Liang Liu; Taesung Hwang; Sungwon Lee; Yanfeng Ouyang; Bumsoo Lee; Steven J. Smith; Fang Yan; Kathryn Daenzer; Tami C. Bond;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States,Asia Pacific School of Logistics and Graduate School of Logistics, Inha University, Incheon, 402751, Republic of Korea;

    Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois 61820, United States;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States;

    Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois 61820, United States;

    Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, Maryland 20740, United States;

    Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States;

    Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, United States;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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