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Decision Support Framework for Developing Regional Energy Strategies

机译：制定区域能源战略的决策支持框架

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摘要

In an effort to reduce "carbon pollution" as well as prepare the U.S. for the impacts of climate change, President Obama's 2013 Climate Action Plan calls for changes to be made to the nation's energy system. In addition to focusing on alternative portfolios of different fuels and power-generation technologies, researchers and advisory panels have urged that changes to the nation's energy system be based on a decision-making framework that incorporates stakeholders and accounts for real-world resource, supply, and demand constraints. To date, research and development on such a framework have proven elusive. The research reported here describes the development and test of a potential decision support framework that combines elements from structured decision-making (SDM) with portfolio analysis, methods that have been used independently to elicit preferences in complex decision contexts. This hybrid framework aimed to (1) provide necessary background information to users regarding the development of coupled climate-energy strategies; (2) account for users' values and objectives; (3) allow for the construction of bespoke energy portfolios bounded by real-world supply and demand constraints; and (4) provide a more rigorous basis for addressing trade-offs. Results show that this framework was user-friendly, led to significant increases in users' knowledge about energy systems and, importantly, led to more internally consistent decisions. For these reasons, this framework may serve as a suitable template for supporting decisions about energy transitions in the United States and abroad.
机译：为了减少“碳污染”，并使美国为应对气候变化的影响做好准备，奥巴马总统的《 2013年气候行动计划》呼吁改变美国的能源系统。研究人员和咨询小组除了关注不同燃料和发电技术的替代产品组合外，还敦促国家能源系统的变革应建立在决策框架的基础上，该决策框架应将利益相关者和真实世界的资源，供应，和需求限制。迄今为止，关于这种框架的研究和开发已被证明是遥不可及的。本文报道的研究描述了潜在决策支持框架的开发和测试，该框架将结构化决策（SDM）的要素与投资组合分析相结合，这些方法已被独立用于在复杂决策环境中引起偏好。该混合框架旨在（1）为用户提供有关发展气候与能源战略的必要背景信息； （2）说明用户的价值观和目标； （3）允许构建受现实世界供需限制的定制能源组合； （4）为解决折衷问题提供了更为严格的基础。结果表明，该框架是用户友好的，导致用户对能源系统的了解大大增加，重要的是，导致了内部更加一致的决策。由于这些原因，该框架可以用作支持美国和国外有关能源转型的决策的合适模板。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2014年第3期|1401-1408|共8页
  • 作者

    Douglas L. Bessette; Joseph Arvai; Victoria Campbell-Arvai;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Geography, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada,Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada;

    Department of Geography, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada,Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada,Decision Research, 1201 Oak Street, Eugene, Oregon 97401, United States;

    Department of Geography, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada,Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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  • 正文语种 eng
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