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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Modeling the Effects of Changes in New Source Review on National SO_2 and NO_x Emissions from Electricitv-Generating Units
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Modeling the Effects of Changes in New Source Review on National SO_2 and NO_x Emissions from Electricitv-Generating Units

机译：模拟新来源审查的变化对发电机组国家SO_2和NO_x排放的影响

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The Clean Air Act establishes New Source Review (NSR) programs that apply to construction or modification of major stationary sources. In 2002 and 2003, EPA revised its rules to narrow NSR's coverage of renovations. Congress mandated a National Research Council study of the revisions' impacts. In that study, we used an electricity-sector model to explore possible effects of the equipment replacement provision (ERP), the principal NSR change directed at power plants. We find that, assuming implementation of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), tight enforcement of the prerevision NSR rules would likely lead to no or limited decreases in national emissions compared to policies such as ERP. However, emissions might shift forward in time because the previous NSR rules would depress allowance prices, discouraging banking and encouraging allowance use. Only under the most aggressive prerevision NSR enforcement scenario, in which essentially all coal capacity is compelled to retrofit controls by 2020, do NO_x emissions fall below ERP levels. Even then, total 2007-2020 SO_2 emissions are unaffected. Further decreases in national emissions could be accomplished more cheaply by tighter emissions caps than through NSR because caps provide incentives for efficient operating strategies, such as fuel switching, as well as retrofits.
机译：《清洁空气法案》建立了适用于主要固定污染源的建造或改造的新污染源审查（NSR）计划。在2002年和2003年，EPA修改了其规则，以缩小NSR的翻新范围。国会授权国家研究委员会对修订的影响进行研究。在该研究中，我们使用了电力部门模型来探索设备更换规定（ERP）的可能影响，该规定是针对发电厂的主要NSR更改。我们发现，假设执行《清洁空气州际规则》（CAIR），则与ERP等政策相比，严格执行修订前的NSR规则可能会导致国家排放量的减少或有限。但是，排放量可能会随着时间向前移动，因为先前的NSR规则会压低配额价格，抑制银行业务并鼓励配额使用。只有在最激进的NSR强制实施方案中，到2020年，基本上所有煤炭产能都必须强制进行改造控制，NO_x排放量才会降至ERP水平以下。即使这样，2007-2020年SO_2的总排放量也不受影响。通过更严格的排放上限比通过NSR可以更便宜地实现国家排放的进一步降低，因为排放上限为有效的运营策略提供了动力，例如燃料转换和改造。

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