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Discrete Event Simulation for Exploring Strategies: An Urban Water Management Case

机译：探索策略的离散事件模拟：城市水管理案例

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摘要

This paper presents a model structure aimed at offering an overview of the various elements of a strategy and exploring their multidimensional effects through time in an efficient way. It treats a strategy as a set of discrete events planned to achieve a certain strategic goal and develops a new form of causal networks as an interfacing component between decision makers and environment models, e.g., life cycle inventory and material flow models. The causal network receives a strategic plan as input in a discrete manner and then outputs the updated parameter sets to the subsequent environmental models. Accordingly, the potential dynamic evolution of environmental systems caused by various strategies can be stepwise simulated. It enables a way to incorporate discontinuous change in models for environmental strategy analysis, and enhances the interpretability and extendibility of a complex model by its cellular constructs. It is exemplified using an urban water management case in Kunming, a major city in Southwest China. By utilizing the presented method, the case study modeled the cross-scale interdependencies of the urban drainage system and regional water balance systems, and evaluated the effectiveness of various strategies for improving the situation of Dianchi Lake.
机译：本文提出了一种模型结构，旨在概述策略的各个要素，并以有效的方式探索其随时间的多维影响。它将战略视为计划实现某个战略目标的一系列离散事件，并开发一种新形式的因果网络作为决策者与环境模型（例如生命周期清单和物料流模型）之间的接口组件。因果网络以离散方式接收战略计划作为输入，然后将更新的参数集输出到后续环境模型。因此，可以逐步模拟由各种策略引起的环境系统的潜在动态演变。它为在环境策略分析中纳入模型中的不连续变化提供了一种途径，并通过其细胞结构增强了复杂模型的可解释性和可扩展性。以中国西南一个主要城市昆明市的城市水资源管理案例为例。通过使用本文提出的方法，案例研究对城市排水系统和区域水平衡系统的跨尺度相互依赖关系进行了建模，并评估了改善滇池状况的各种策略的有效性。

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