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Model Prognoses for Future Acidification Recovery of Surface Waters in Norway Using Long-Term Monitoring Data

机译：使用长期监测数据的挪威地表水未来酸化回收的模型预测

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摘要

During the past 20 years,acid deposition in Europe has decreased by more than 60%,yet still a large number of lakes and streams in southern Norway have not recovered to a water quality sufficient to support sustainable populations of trout or salmon.Long-term (30 years) monitoring data were used hereto constrain the calibration of the acidification model MAGIC to three Norwegian calibrated catchments.The model accounted for 60-80% of the variance in the year-to-year variations in concentrations of most of the major ions in streamwater.The results support the use of the lumped parameter acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) to link chemical parameters to biological response,as the calibration efficiency for ANC is considerably higher than for other biologically important parameters such as inorganic aluminum (Al~(n+)) and pH.Three different scenarios for future deposition of sulfur were run:current legislation,maximum feasible reductions,and an illustrative scenario removing all anthropogenic deposition.These analyses show that much of the potential improvement in water quality has already occurred and that only limited further improvement can be expected from the current legislation.The current legislation is unlikely to produce ANC values sufficiently high to allow self-reproducing populations of trout at two of the three sites.Most of the response in water chemistry to reduced acid deposition has been rapid;the water chemical responses largely occur the same year or a few years after reduction in the input.The soil pool of exchangeable base cations depleted during 150 years of acid deposition,however,requires several centuries for replenishment.The uncertainties in future predictions come from several factors,such as future nitrogen dynamics and impacts from changes in seasalt and precipitation events.The differences in future water chemistry predicted from changed seasalt deposition or nitrogen dynamics are larger that the differences between different deposition scenarios.Hence,these factors must be included in future assessments of recovery from acidification.
机译：在过去的20年中，欧洲的酸沉降减少了60％以上，但挪威南部的大量湖泊和溪流仍未恢复到足以支撑鳟鱼或鲑鱼可持续种群的水质。 （30年）监测数据用于将酸化模型MAGIC的校准限制在三个挪威校准的集水区，该模型占大多数主要离子浓度逐年变化的60-80％结果支持使用集总参数酸中和能力（ANC）将化学参数与生物学响应联系起来，因为ANC的校准效率大大高于其他生物学上重要的参数，例如无机铝（Al〜（n + ））和pH值。运行了三种不同的方案，用于未来硫的沉积：现行法规，最大可行的减少量以及去除所有人为因素的说明性方案这些分析表明，水质的许多潜在改善已经发生，目前的立法只能预期有限的进一步改善。在三个地点中的两个处捕捞鳟鱼。水化学反应对减少酸沉积的反应大多数是快速的;水化学反应在输入减少后的同一年或数年内大量发生。可交换碱性阳离子的土壤池被耗尽然而，在150年的酸沉降过程中，需要补给几个世纪。未来预测的不确定性来自多个因素，例如未来的氮气动态以及海盐变化和降水事件的影响。海盐变化预测的未来水化学差异沉积或氮气动力学较大，以不同沉积场景之间的差异因此，这些因素必须纳入酸化回收率的未来评估中。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2005年第20期|p.7970-7979|共10页
  • 作者

    THORJ0RN LARSSEN;

  • 作者单位

    Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NTVA),Post Office Box 173,Kjelsas,N-0411 Oslo,Norway;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 环境化学;
  • 关键词

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