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ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

机译：全球气候变化背景下的生态风险评估

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Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem.
机译：来源，压力源，栖息地和地理范围的变化；毒理作用终点不确定性估计需要对生态风险评估（ERA）的实施进行重大更改。由于在经过历史研究的站点中缺少模拟系统和环境，因此存在III型错误的可能性。作为第一步，作者提出了决策关键，以帮助管理人员和风险评估人员确定何时以及在何种程度上应纳入气候变化。接下来，当全球气候变化是一个重要因素时，作者建议对ERA进行七个关键的变化。首先，建立概念上的因果图，其中要考虑相关的管理决策以及适当的时空尺度，以包括气候变化的直接和间接影响以及管理利益的压力。其次，建立评估终点，将其表达为生态系统服务。第三，评估多种压力源和非线性响应-包括与气候变化有关的化学物质和压力源。第四，估计气候变化将如何影响或改变管理选择。第五，考虑到可能同时出现积极和消极结果，考虑与管理目标相关的变化方向和变化率。第六，确定不确定性的主要驱动因素，在空间，时间和逐步上估计和限制随机不确定性。第七，规划适应性管理，以应对不断变化的环境条件和随之而来的生态系统服务变化。良好的沟通对于使风险相关信息易于理解，对于管理者和利益相关者实施成功的风险评估和决策过程至关重要。环境。毒药。化学

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