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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental toxicology and chemistry >MODELING THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF ATRAZINE ON AQUATIC COMMUNITIES IN MIDWESTERN STREAMS
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MODELING THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF ATRAZINE ON AQUATIC COMMUNITIES IN MIDWESTERN STREAMS

机译：模拟阿特拉津对中西部水生生物群落的潜在影响

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The comprehensive aquatic systems model for atrazine (CASM_(ATZ)) estimates the potential toxic effects of atrazine on populations of aquatic plants and consumers in a generic lower-order midwestern stream. The CASM_(ATZ) simulates the daily production of 20 periphyton and 6 aquatic vascular plant species. The modeled consumer community consists of 17 functionally defined species of zooplankton, benthic invertebrates, bacteria, and fish. Daily values of population biomass (grams of carbon per square meter) are calculated as nonlinear functions of population bioenergetics, physical-chemical environmental parameters, grazing/predator-prey interactions, and population-specific direct and indirect responses to atrazine. The CASM_(ATZ) uses Monte Carlo methods to characterize the implications of phenotypic variability, environmental variability, and uncertainty associated with atrazine toxicity data in estimating the potential impacts of time-varying atrazine exposures on population biomass and community structure. Comparisons of modeled biomass values for plants and consumers with published data indicate that the generic reference simulation realistically describes ecological production in lower-order midwestern streams. Probabilistic assessments were conducted using the CASM_(ATZ)to evaluate potential modeled changes in plant community structure resulting from measured atrazine exposure profiles in 3 midwestern US streams representing watersheds highly vulnerable to runoff. Deviation in the median values of maximum 30-d average Steinhaus similarity index ranged from 0.09% to 2.52% from the reference simulation. The CASM_(ATZ)could therefore be used for the purposes of risk assessment by comparison of site monitoring-based model output to a biologically relevant Steinhaus similarity index level of concern. Used as a generic screening technology or in site-specific applications, the CASM_(ATZ) provides an effective, coherent, and transparent modeling framework for assessing ecological risks posed by pesticides in lower-order streams.
机译：阿特拉津的综合水生系统模型（CASM_（ATZ））估计了阿特拉津对中西部一般下游水生植物种群和消费者的潜在毒性作用。 CASM_（ATZ）模拟20种浮游植物和6种水生维管植物的日产量。建模的消费者社区由17种功能界定的浮游动物，底栖无脊椎动物，细菌和鱼类组成。人口生物量的每日价值（每平方米碳的克数）被计算为人口生物能的非线性函数，物理化学环境参数，放牧/捕食者与猎物之间的相互作用以及特定于人口的对at去津的直接和间接响应。 CASM_（ATZ）使用蒙特卡洛方法来表征表型变异性，环境变异性以及与at去津毒性数据相关的不确定性，以评估随时间变化的at去津暴露对种群生物量和群落结构的潜在影响。对植物和消费者的模型化生物量值与已发布数据的比较表明，通用参考模拟现实地描述了中西部低阶河流的生态生产。使用CASM_（ATZ）进行了概率评估，以评估由美国中西部3条河流（代表流域高度脆弱的流域）中r去津暴露量测得的潜在模拟植物群落结构变化。与参考模拟相比，最​​大30天平均Steinhaus相似性指数的中位数偏差在0.09％至2.52％的范围内。因此，通过将基于现场监测的模型输出与关注的生物学相关Steinhaus相似性指数水平进行比较，可以将CASM_（ATZ）用于风险评估。 CASM_（ATZ）可用作通用筛选技术或用于特定地点的应用程序，它提供了一个有效，连贯且透明的建模框架，用于评估低级农药中农药的生态风险。

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