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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental toxicology and chemistry >Simulating Honey Bee Large‐Scale Colony Feeding Studies Using the BEEHAVE Model-Part Ⅰ: Model Validation
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Simulating Honey Bee Large‐Scale Colony Feeding Studies Using the BEEHAVE Model-Part Ⅰ: Model Validation

机译：使用Behave Model部分模拟蜂蜜蜂大规模殖民地喂养研究Ⅰ：模型验证

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In pesticide risk assessments, semifield studies, such as large-scale colony feeding studies (LSCFSs), are conducted to assess potential risks at the honey bee colony level. However, such studies are very cost and time intensive, and high overwintering losses of untreated control hives have been observed in some studies. Honey bee colony models such as BEEHAVE may provide tools to systematically assess multiple factors influencing colony outcomes, to inform study design, and to estimate pesticide impacts under varying environmental conditions. Before they can be used reliably, models should be validated to demonstrate they can appropriately reproduce patterns observed in the field. Despite the recognized need for validation, methodologies to be used in the context of applied ecological models are not agreed on. For the parameterization, calibration, and validation of BEEHAVE, we used control data from multiple LSCFSs. We conducted detailed visual and quantitative performance analyses as a demonstration of validation methodologies. The BEEHAVE outputs showed good agreement with apiary-specific validation data sets representing the first year of the studies. However, the simulations of colony dynamics in the spring periods following overwintering were identified as less reliable. The comprehensive validation effort applied provides important insights that can inform the usability of BEEHAVE in applications related to higher tier risk assessments. In addition, the validation methodology applied could be used in a wider context of ecological models.Environ Toxicol Chem2020;00:1-17. (c) 2020 The Authors.Environmental Toxicology and Chemistrypublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.
机译：在农药风险评估中，进行半级研究，如大规模的殖民地喂养研究（LSCFS），以评估蜂窝菌落水平的潜在风险。然而，这种研究是非常成本和时间的，并且在一些研究中观察到未经处理的对照蜂巢的高倒流损失。 Beehave等蜂窝殖民地模型可以提供系统地评估影响殖民地结果的多种因素的工具，以告知学习设计，并在不同的环境条件下估算农药影响。在它们可以可靠地使用之前，应验证模型以证明它们可以适当地再现在该领域中观察到的模式。尽管确认需要验证，但不同意在应用生态模型的背景下使用的方法。对于Behave的参数化，校准和验证，我们使用来自多个LSCFS的控制数据。我们进行了详细的视觉和定量性能分析作为验证方法的演示。 BEEHAVE产出显示与代表研究第一年的APIAS特定验证数据集的良好协议。然而，在过冬后的春季周期中的菌落动力学模拟被确定为较低可靠。适用的全面验证努力提供了重要的见解，可以在与更高层次风险评估有关的应用程序中提供壮族的可用性。此外，应用的验证方法可以用于生态模型的更广泛的背景中.Environ毒素Chem202020202020; 00：1-17。 （c）2020作者。由于Wiley期刊LLC代表Setac的环境和化学毒理学和化学毒理学。

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