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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas
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Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

机译：规划和管理海洋保护区的关键生态系统指标的变化预测：以欧洲海洋为例的研究

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摘要

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：海洋保护区（MPA）被广泛用作维护生物多样性，保护栖息地并确保发展可持续的工具。如果海洋保护区要在未来继续发挥作用，对于管理人员来说，重要的是要了解气候变化和其他驱动因素可能导致这些地点的条件发生变化，这种理解需要超出温度范围，延伸至一系列关键的生态系统指标。该案例研究表明，针对多个变量进行空间汇总的模型结果如何为MPA规划人员和管理人员提供有用的预测。使用未减缓和全球管理的气候变化和河流管理情景，以及温室气体和河流传播的养分的高低排放，对2040年代的欧洲MPA情况进行了预测。结果强调了西北地中海地区潜在避难所的脆弱性以及对不列颠群岛北部和西部MPA进行仔细监测的必要性，这可能会受到大西洋环流模式变化的影响。这些预测还支持在东地中海和亚得里亚海增加MPA的需求，并且可以为选址提供依据。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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