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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Vulnerability assessment of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, China to sea-level rise
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Vulnerability assessment of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, China to sea-level rise

机译：中国长江口沿海湿地对海平面上升的脆弱性评估

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摘要

Sea-level rise (SLR) caused by global climate change will have significant impacts on the low-lying coastal zone. The coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, with their low elevation, are particularly sensitive to SLR. In this study, the potential impacts of SLR on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by adopting the SPRC (Source Pathway Receptor Consequence) model. Based on the SPRC model and IPCC vulnerability definition, an indicator system for vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands to SLR was developed, in which the rate of SLR, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, mean daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. Vulnerability assessment, based on the projection of SLR rates from the present trend (0.26 cm/yr) and IPCC's A(1)F(1) scenario (0.59 cm/yr), were performed for three time periods: short-term (2030s), medium-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results indicated that in the 2030s, 6.6% and 9.0% of the coastal wetlands were within the grade of low vulnerability under the scenarios of present trend and A(1)F(1), respectively. In the 2050s, the percentage of coastal wetlands within the grades of low and moderate vulnerability increases to 9.8% and 0.2%, 9.5% and 1.0% under the scenarios of present trend and A(1)F(1), respectively. In the 2100s, 8.1% and 3.0% of the coastal wetlands were within the grade of low vulnerability, 0.8% and 2.8% were within the grade of moderate vulnerability under the scenarios of present trend and A(1)F(1), respectively. The percentage of coastal wetlands within the grade of high vulnerability increases significantly, amounting to 2.3% and 6.9% under the scenarios of present trend and A(1)F(1), respectively. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology developed and the results could assist with the objective and quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of coastal wetlands undergoing the impacts of SLR elsewhere. Without proper mitigation measures, the potential decrease in the area and loss of habitats and ecosystem services from the wetlands is inevitable. Based on the results of this study, mitigation measures should be considered for securing the future of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary, which include the management of sedimentation, rehabilitation and re-creation of wetland habitat, reduction of land subsidence and control of reclamation. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：全球气候变化引起的海平面上升（SLR）将对低洼沿海地区产生重大影响。长江口的沿海湿​​地海拔低，对单反特别敏感。在这项研究中，通过采用SPRC（源路径受体后果）模型分析了SLR对长江口沿海湿地的潜在影响。根据SPRC模型和IPCC脆弱性定义，建立了沿海湿地对SLR脆弱性评估的指标体系，选择了SLR发生率，沉降率，生境海拔，生境平均每日淹没持续时间和沉积率。关键指标。通过量化每个指标，计算脆弱性指数和对脆弱性进行分级，建立了基于GIS平台的空间评估方法。在三个时间段内进行了脆弱性评估，该评估基于从当前趋势（0.26厘米/年）和IPCC的A（1）F（1）情景（0.59厘米/年）对SLR率的预测，进行了三个时间段：短期（2030 s） ），中期（2050s）和长期（2100s）。结果表明，在当前趋势和A（1）F（1）情景下，到2030年代，沿海湿地分别为6.6％和9.0％处于低脆弱性等级。在2050年代，在当前趋势和A（1）F（1）情景下，处于低脆弱性和中等脆弱性等级的沿海湿地所占百分比分别增加到9.8％和0.2％，9.5％和1.0％。在2100年代，在当前趋势和A（1）F（1）情景下，沿海湿地分别有8.1％和3.0％处于低脆弱性等级，0.8％和2.8％处于中等脆弱性等级。 。在高脆弱性等级内的沿海湿地百分比显着增加，在当前趋势和A（1）F（1）情景下分别达到2.3％和6.9％。 SPRC模型的应用，开发的方法和结果可有助于客观和定量评估遭受SLR冲击的沿海湿地的脆弱性。如果没有适当的缓解措施，不可避免的是湿地面积的减少以及栖息地和生态系统服务的丧失。根据这项研究的结果，应考虑采取缓解措施，以确保长江口沿海湿地的未来发展，包括对沉积物的管理，对湿地栖息地的恢复和重建，减少地面沉降和控制填海。 。 （C）2014 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science》 |2015年第5期|42-51|共10页
  • 作者

    Cui Lifang; Ge Zhenming; Yuan Lin; Zhang Liquan;

  • 作者单位

    E China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    E China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    E China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

    E China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China|E China Normal Univ, Shanghai Key Lab Urbanizat & Ecol Restorat, Shanghai 200062, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    sea-level rise; coastal wetlands; vulnerability assessment; coastal squeeze; Yangtze Estuary;

    机译：海平面上升;沿海湿地;脆弱性评估;挤压;长江口;

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