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首页> 外文期刊>Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science >Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to predict eastern oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality under river management and climate change scenarios
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Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to predict eastern oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality under river management and climate change scenarios

机译：动态能源预算建模，以预测东部牡蛎生长，繁殖和河流管理下的死亡率和气候变化情景

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摘要

Eastern oysters growing in deltaic Louisiana estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico must tolerate considerable salinity variation from natural climate variability (e.g., rainfall and stream run-off pushing isohalines offshore; tropical storms pushing isohalines inshore) and man-made diversions and siphons releasing freshwater from the Mississippi River. These salinity variations are predicted to increase with future climate change because of the increased frequency of stronger storms and also in response to proposed large-scale river diversions. Increased Mississippi River flow into coastal estuaries from river diversions, along with potential changes in rainfall and stream run-off from climate change will alter spatial and temporal salinity patterns. In this study we used an individual Dynamic Energy Budget model to predict growth and reproductive potential of eastern oysters across observed and simulated salinity gradients corresponding to different climate and river management scenarios. We used validated model outputs of salinity from a coupled hydrology-hydrodynamic model to assess the current impacts of Davis Pond diversion discharge on oysters located downstream. Under a high diversion discharge scenario oyster growth potential was reduced by 9%, 4%, and 1% in Upper, Mid, and Lower Bay locations, respectively, as compared to a limited discharge year. Reproductive outputs decreased by 34% and 2% in the Upper and Lower Bay locations, respectively, and increased by 2% at the Mid Bay site. In scenarios combining predicted increased temperature with the effect of diversions, all oysters located in the Upper and Mid Bay sites died due to severe summer conditions (high temperatures combined with low salinity). Overall, oysters in down-estuary locations, influenced by both estuarine river management and gulf conditions demonstrated significant tolerance to changing salinity and temperature conditions from diversions alone and when combined with climate change. In contrast, oysters located up-estuary, and exposed to more extreme salinity impacts from river management, demonstrated potentially lethal impacts through direct mortality, and reduced sustainability through decrease in reproductive output. These predictions at the individual level may translate into less sustainable populations in the most extreme scenarios; restoration and production plans may benefit from accounting for these impacts on reproductive output particularly as decision makers seek to restore critical oyster areas.
机译：在墨西哥湾北部的红雪路易斯安那州的东部牡蛎必须忍受从天然气候变异性（例如，降雨和河流越过海上的河流的降雨和溪流;热带风暴推动Isohalines inshore）和人造分流和虹吸释放淡水来自密西西比河。这些盐度变化预计随着未来的气候变化增加，因为更强的风暴频率增加，也是为了应对提出的大规模河流分流。 Mississippi River从河流转移到沿海河口的增加，以及从气候变化的降雨和溪流的潜在变化将改变空间和时间盐度模式。在这项研究中，我们使用了一个单独的动态能源预算模型，以预测东部牡蛎的增长和生殖潜力，观察到的观察和模拟盐度梯度对应于不同的气候和河流管理场景。我们使用耦合水文 - 流体动力学模型的验证模型输出从耦合水文 - 流体动力学模型评估Davis Pond转移放电对位于下游的牡蛎的电流影响。与有限的排放年相比，在高导流的情况下，牡蛎增长潜力分别降低了上部，中，下湾位置的9％，4％和1％。在上下海湾地区的生殖输出分别在上下舱位置减少了34％和2％，在中间海湾部位增加了2％。在方案中，将预测的温度相结合，随着分流的影响，位于上海湾站点的所有牡蛎由于严重的夏季条件（高温与低盐度相结合）死亡。总体而言，由河口河流管理和海湾条件影响的嘴巴地区的牡蛎对单独的分支和随着气候变化时，对改变盐度和温度条件的显着耐受性。相比之下，位于河口的牡蛎和暴露于河流管理的更极端的盐度影响，通过直接死亡率表现出潜在的致命影响，并通过生殖产出的降低减少可持续性。在最极端的情景中，各个层面的这些预测可以转化为更少的可持续群体;恢复和生产计划可能会受益于这些影响对生殖产出的影响，特别是决策者寻求恢复批判牡蛎区域。

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  • 来源
    《Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science》 |2021年第5期|107188.1-107188.13|共13页
  • 作者

    Lavaud R.; La Peyre M.K.; Justic D.; La Peyre J.F.;

  • 作者单位

    Université du Québec à Rimouski Rimouski QC Canada|Marine Affairs Program Dalhousie University Halifax NS Canada|School of Renewable Natural Resources Louisiana State University Agricultural Center Baton Rouge USA;

    U.S. Geological Survey Louisiana Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit School of Renewable Natural Resources Louisiana State University Agricultural Center Baton Rouge USA;

    Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences School of the Coast and Environment Louisiana State University Baton Rouge USA;

    School of Animal Sciences Louisiana State University Agricultural Center Baton Rouge USA;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Bioenergetics; Crassostrea virginica; Louisiana; Northern gulf of Mexico; Physiology; Salinity;

    机译：生物能器;鲫鱼;路易斯安那州;墨西哥北湾;生理学;盐度;

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