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A Modified Paretobd Approach For Predicting Customerlifetime Value

机译:一种改进的Pareto / nbd方法来预测客户生命周期价值

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摘要

Valuing customers is a central issue for any commercial activity.The customer lifetime value (CLV) is the discounted value of the future profits that this customer yields to the company.In order to compute the CLV,one needs to predict the future number of transactions a customer will make and the profit of these transactions.With the Pareto/NBD model,the future number of transactions of a customer can be predicted,and the CLV is then computed as a discounted product between this number and the expected profit per transaction.Usually,the number of transactions and the future profits per transaction are estimated separately.This study proposes an alternative.We show that the dependence between the number of transactions and their profitability can be used to increase the accuracy of the prediction of the CLV.This is illustrated with a new empirical case from the retail banking sector.
机译:评估客户价值是任何商业活动的核心问题。客户生命周期价值(CLV)是该客户产生给公司的未来利润的折现值。要计算CLV,需要预测未来的交易数量使用Pareto / NBD模型,可以预测客户的未来交易数量,然后将CLV计算为该数量与每笔交易预期利润之间的折扣产品。通常,交易数量和每笔交易的未来利润是分别估算的。本研究提出了另一种选择。我们表明,交易数量与其获利能力之间的依赖关系可以用来提高CLV预测的准确性。零售银行业的一个新的经验案例对此进行了说明。

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