The Nigerian economy is poised for another year of growth. Performance in the non-oil sector continues to improve, and despite heightened downside global risks, the price of Nigerian crude has been averaging well above $90/barrel, compared with an early 2009 average of $38/barrel. Assuming growth in the oil sector falls below our baseline forecast, improved activity in the non-oil sector, particularly in agricultural production and infrastructural development, will help mitigate the shortfall. Assuming the hydrocarbon sector does not deteriorate sharply in the near term, upside risks to real GDP growth during the same period are likely to predominate.
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