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Gloom For Owners, Hope For Charterers

机译：业主的悲观，租船者的希望

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Some say that President Obama has been jumping the gun in talking about"glimmers of hope"in the US economy at the start of the second quarter - and for the energy markets, the sceptics could be rightrnFollowing a regular feed of news on how oil consumption is faltering this year, in its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) painted a pitiable picture for oil demand in 2009. In the 10 April report, the IEA expanded its forecast contraction in consumption by a further 1M barrels per day. This takes the Agency's forecast down to 83.4M bpd, under 2005-demand levels. And it marks a 2.4M bpd or 2.8% fall from 2008.rnThe IEA described the pace of decline as, "close to early 1980s levels," when consumers and industry cut back due to high oil prices and the economic slowdown.rnTanker market participants are unlikely to be surprised at the latest consumption estimates as it is clear in the number of spot fixtures concluded that the number of oil cargoes has fallen dramatically since the start of the year. The OPEC cuts made in anticipation of lower demand this year, have had a particular impactrnon East-bound trades in particular, as members in the Middle East have largely complied with the group's targets. This has had a huge impact on average freight rates and earnings, which are now at multi-year lows for most of the major trading routes.
机译：有人说，奥巴马总统在第二季度初就一直在谈论美国经济中的“充满希望的光芒”-对于能源市场，持怀疑态度的人可能会正确接受。国际能源署（IEA）在今年的最新月度报告中步履蹒跚，描绘了2009年石油需求的惨淡景象。在4月10日的报告中，IEA将其每日的消费萎缩预期进一步增加了100万桶。根据2005年的需求水平，这使原子能机构的预测下降至8340万桶/天。而且，这标志着与2008年相比下降了240万桶/日，或2.8％。rnIEA将下降的步伐描述为“接近1980年代初的水平”，当时消费者和石油行业因高油价和经济放缓而削减了产量。对于最新的消费量估计值，不太可能会感到惊讶，因为很明显的即期交易数量得出的结论是，自今年年初以来，石油货物的数量已急剧下降。欧佩克因预期今年需求减少而削减石油产量，特别对东向贸易产生了特殊影响，因为中东成员国已基本遵守了该组织的目标。这对平均运费和收益产生了巨大影响，目前，大多数主要贸易路线的平均运费和收益均处于多年低点。

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    《Fairplay》 |2009年第6527期|48-49|共2页
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