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首页> 外文期刊>Fire Technology >Development of an Integrated Risk Assessment Method to Quantify the Life Safety Risk in Buildings in Case of Fire
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Development of an Integrated Risk Assessment Method to Quantify the Life Safety Risk in Buildings in Case of Fire

机译：开发一种综合风险评估方法，以量化火灾中建筑物的生命安全风险

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An integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodology is developed for the purpose of quantifying the life safety level of people present in buildings in the context of fire safety design. Multiple risk based concepts and tools have been developed in previous research to objectify performance based design methods for simple building types and layouts. However, these available models lack an integrated approach for challenging building designs and moreover they are not adequately coupled, most often resulting in a significant computational effort. Hence, there is a need for a practical and efficient framework for dealing with complicated building layouts and different occupancy types. Therefore, a computationally efficient quantitative risk assessment method is developed that provides a framework by combining deterministic sub-models and probabilistic techniques to quantify the fire safety level by means of failure probabilities, individual and societal risk. The deterministic framework is supported by analytical and numerical models. The probabilistic framework is supported by response surface modelling, sampling techniques and limit state design. Following the theoretical description of the model, a case study of a five storey commercial shopping mall of 25,000m(2) is elaborated and discussed as proof of concept. Multiple fire, building and occupant variables are implemented in the model. Three different fire safety designs are compared, resulting in quantified risks between 10(-6) and 10(-8). The case study proves the validity of the newly developed integrated methodology for this type of buildings and its benefits in fire safety engineering.
机译：开发了一种综合概率风险评估方法，目的是在消防安全设计的背景下量化建筑物中人员的生命安全水平。在先前的研究中已经开发了多种基于风险的概念和工具，以针对简单建筑物类型和布局的基于性能的设计方法进行客观化。但是，这些可用的模型缺乏用于挑战性建筑设计的集成方法，而且它们耦合不充分，通常会导致大量的计算工作。因此，需要一种实用且有效的框架来处理复杂的建筑物布局和不同的占用类型。因此，开发了一种计算有效的定量风险评估方法，该方法通过结合确定性子模型和概率技术来通过故障概率，个人风险和社会风险来量化消防安全水平，从而提供了一个框架。确定性框架得到分析和数值模型的支持。概率框架由响应面建模，采样技术和极限状态设计支持。根据模型的理论描述，详细阐述并讨论了一个25,000m（2）的五层商业购物中心的案例研究，作为概念验证。该模型中实现了多个火灾，建筑物和居住者变量。比较了三种不同的防火设计，得出的量化风险在10（-6）和10（-8）之间。案例研究证明了针对此类建筑物的最新开发的集成方法的有效性及其在消防安全工程中的优势。

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