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Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: Impact on risk estimates

机译：在定量风险评估中，将每个食物单位中细菌的数量与细菌浓度进行比较的模型：对风险估计的影响

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摘要

When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations: the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a ＞10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise.
机译：在开发定量风险评估模型时，风险评估者的基本考虑是决定是根据浓度还是细菌数量来评估细菌水平的变化。尽管以整数形式对细菌进行建模可能被认为是更直观，更严格的选择，但是对细菌浓度进行建模更为普遍，因为它通常在数学上不太复杂。我们在模拟研究中测试了三种不同的建模方法。第一种方法考虑了细菌的浓度：第二种方法考虑了受污染单位的细菌数量，第三种考虑了受污染单位的预期细菌数量。模拟结果表明，与对细菌数量进行建模相比，对浓度进行建模往往会高估风险。使用回归树进行的敏感性分析表明，在模拟浓度而不是细菌数量时，包括大细菌灭活和大细菌生长的组合在内的剧烈过程通常会导致平均风险高估10倍以上。替代地，以阳性单位对细菌的预期数量进行建模的方法产生的结果类似于第二种方法，并且更易于使用，因此潜在地代表了有希望的折衷方案。

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  • 来源
    《Food microbiology》 |2015年第febaptab期|245-253|共9页
  • 作者

    Regis Pouillot; Yuhuan Chen; Karin Hoelzer;

  • 作者单位

    U.S. Food and Drug Administration / Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (HFS-005), 5100 Paint Branch Parkway, College Park, MD 20740, USA;

    U.S. Food and Drug Administration / Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (HFS-005), 5100 Paint Branch Parkway, College Park, MD 20740, USA;

    U.S. Food and Drug Administration / Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (HFS-005), 5100 Paint Branch Parkway, College Park, MD 20740, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment; Bacterial concentration; Bacterial number; Modeling process pathway; Simulation study;

    机译：定量微生物风险评估;细菌浓度;细菌数;建模过程路径;模拟研究;

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