Maybe this is the delustion of a guy who grew up in a small city in the Midwest. I will admit that pals of mine in New York and Silicon Valley snort at the idea. But here goes, anyway: Small U.S. cities could very well outperform larger cities, economically, over the next decade. If this happens, a trend that has favored large cities since about 1981―particularly those centers of tech and finance on both coasts―could reverse. I offer no statistical evidence in support of this. But I see and hear the stories. A sales colleague in her 30s says friends have all decamped San Francisco. To where? Portland. Tucson. Sacramento. Sacramento? Gee, isn't that kind of ... boring if you've lived in San Francisco?. A headhunter told me that he now recruits hotshot executives out of Chicago or Dallas and places them, amazingly, in Des Moines or Omaha. As recently as two years ago, no dice. "What's the attraction?" I ask "Great housing for the dollar, country clubs you can get into―and afford―public schools that work, short commutes." "But what about culture, big city stimulations?" I ask. He laughs. "You clearly don't get it, Rich. From the money they save on housing, country clubs and schools, my clients fly to Paris when they want culture."
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