The Demographic Future: What Population Growth-and Decline-Means for the Global Economy

Nicholas Eberstadt

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The Demographic Future: What Population Growth-and Decline-Means for the Global Economy

机译：人口的未来：全球经济人口增长和下降的意义

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It is already possible to draw a reasonably reliable profile of the world's population in 2030. This is, of course, because the overwhelming majority of those who will inhabit the world 20 years from now are already alive. As a result, one can make some fairly confident estimates of important demographic trends, including manpower availability, the growth in the number of senior citizens, and the resulting support burden on workers.

机译：已经有可能在2030年之前对世界人口进行合理可靠的描述。这当然是因为，从现在起20年后将居住在世界上的绝大多数人都还活着。结果，人们可以对重要的人口趋势做出一些相当有把握的估计，其中包括人力资源，老年人数量的增长以及由此给工人带来的负担。

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来源
《Foreign affairs》 |2010年第6期|p.54-64|共11页
作者
Nicholas Eberstadt;
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作者单位

American Enterprise Institute and Senior Adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research;

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The Demographic Future: What Population Growth-and Decline-Means for the Global Economy

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