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Russian S&T Foresight 2030: identifying new drivers of growth

机译：俄罗斯科技展望2030：确定新的增长动力

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摘要

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the recent Russian Science and Technology Foresight - a full-fledged study targeted at the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology (S&T) development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the realisation of the nation’s competitive advantages. It was organised as a complex project involving dozens of organizations performing particular tasks under the overall coordination by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and more than 2,000 experts in various S&T fields. Design/methodology/approach: Its methodology embraced a set of qualitative and quantitative methods and combined technology push and market pool approaches. For seven S&T areas (information and communication technologies, biotechnologies, medicine and health, new materials and nanotechnologies, rational use of nature, transportation and space systems, energy efficiency and energy saving), the following types of results have been obtained: global trends, national challenges and windows of opportunities; new markets and niches; innovation products and services; prospective technologies and R&D fields (50 thematic groups, over 1,000 items for all areas); assessment of the country’s positions vis-à-vis global leaders; recommendations for S&T and innovation policies. Findings: The paper covers prospective drivers of economic growth and relevant implications for anticipatory evidence-based policy; discussions of national challenges and building a common vision of the future among key stakeholders; the role of Foresight in particular as a communication platform that helps integrating stakeholder interests; strengthening existing and developing new capacities to increase national competitiveness; and to move up along existing and emerging global value chains. Originality/value: The Russian S&T Foresight, being deeply integrated in the national policy, can be considered as an exemplar tool for “wiring up” the national innovation system (NIS) of an emerging economy with its specific features and problems facing large-scale challenges.
机译：目的：本文的目的是介绍俄罗斯最近的科学与技术展望的成果-一项全面的研究，旨在确定俄罗斯到2030年最有希望的科学与技术（S＆T）发展领域，以确保实现国家的竞争优势。它是一个复杂的项目，由数十个组织执行特定任务，由国立研究大学经济高等学校（HSE）统筹协调，并有2000多名科学和技术领域的专家参与。设计/方法/方法：其方法包括一套定性和定量方法，并结合了技术推动和市场共享方法。在七个科技领域（信息和通信技术，生物技术，医学与健康，新材料和纳米技术，自然界的合理利用，运输和空间系统，能源效率和节能），获得了以下类型的结果：全球趋势，国家挑战和机遇之窗；新的市场和利基市场；创新产品和服务；前瞻性技术和研发领域（50个主题小组，所有领域超过1,000个项目）；评估该国相对于全球领导人的立场；科技和创新政策建议。调查结果：本文涵盖了经济增长的潜在驱动因素以及对基于预期证据的政策的相关影响；在主要利益攸关方之间讨论国家挑战并建立对未来的共同愿景；前瞻的作用尤其是作为沟通平台，有助于整合利益相关者的利益；加强现有能力和发展新能力以提高国家竞争力；并沿着现有和新兴的全球价值链发展。独创性/价值：俄罗斯科技远见已深深融入国家政策，可以被视为“连接”新兴经济体的国家创新体系（NIS）的典范工具，其特定特征和面临的大规模挑战挑战。

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  • 来源
    《Foresight》 |2017年第5期|441-456|共16页
  • 作者

    Gokhberg Leonid; Sokolov Alexander V.; Chulok Alexander A.;

  • 作者单位

    Laboratory for Economics of Innovation and Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation;

    Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation;

    Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation;

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  • 关键词

    Foresight; Grand challenges; Russia; Science and technology;

    机译：前瞻性重大挑战;俄国;科学和技术;

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