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Scan-4-Light: a Searchlight function horizon scanning and trend monitoring project

机译：Scan-4-Light：Searchlight功能的水平扫描和趋势监视项目

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摘要

Purpose - The current paper aims to present the Scan-4-Light study, which was conducted for the systematic scanning and analysis of the Searchlight newsletters as a rapidly growing collection of articles on trends and topics in development and poverty. Design/methodology/approach - Built upon the concept of the systemic foresight methodology, the Scan-4-Light approach involves the integrated use of horizon scanning, network analysis and evolutionary scenarios combined with expert consultations and workshops. The study identified the emerging trends, issues, weak signals and wild cards; created high-value visualisations to emphasize the results and findings; and produced narratives to increase the impact and awareness of the development issues. Findings - The Scan-4-Light project has resulted in a large number of specific outputs, providing the views of the Searchlight newsletters' contents at various levels of granularity. It has set out to show how the tools used here can be applied to illustrate the relationships among issues, and how these vary across countries and regions over time, and are linked to various stakeholders and possible solutions to problems. Research limitations/implications - Scan-4-Light demonstrates how foresight tools and techniques can be used for the analysis of complex and uncertain issues, such as development and poverty, in a systemic way. Practical implications - The Scan-4-Light approach can be applied in a number of areas for scanning and identifying emerging trends and issues, and understanding the relationships between systems and solutions. Social implications - The paper gives evidence that most of the issues, if not all, related to development are not isolated, but interlinked and interconnected. They require more holistic understanding and intervention with an effective collaboration between stakeholders. Originality/value - A demonstration of a novel scanning approach is presented in the paper.
机译：目的-本论文旨在介绍Scan-4-Light研究，该研究旨在对Searchlight新闻通讯进行系统的扫描和分析，以迅速收集有关发展与贫困趋势和主题的文章。设计/方法/方法-基于系统前瞻性方法的概念，Scan-4-Light方法涉及对水平扫描，网络分析和演化方案的综合使用，并结合了专家咨询和研讨会。该研究确定了新出现的趋势，问题，微弱信号和通配符；创建高价值的可视化效果以强调结果和发现；并制作了叙述，以增加对发展问题的影响和认识。结果-Scan-4-Light项目产生了大量的特定输出，以不同的粒度级别提供了Searchlight新闻通讯内容的视图。它着手说明如何使用此处使用的工具来说明问题之间的关系，以及这些问题在不同国家和地区之间随时间变化的方式，并与各种利益相关者和问题的可能解决方案联系在一起。研究的局限性/意义-Scan-4-Light演示了如何将先见之明的工具和技术以系统的方式用于分析复杂和不确定的问题，例如发展和贫困。实际意义-Scan-4-Light方法可用于许多领域，以扫描和识别新出现的趋势和问题，并了解系统与解决方案之间的关系。社会影响-本文提供的证据表明，与发展有关的大多数（即使不是全部）问题不是孤立的，而是相互联系和相互联系的。他们需要利益相关者之间的有效合作，需要更多的整体理解和干预。原创性/价值-本文介绍了一种新颖的扫描方法。

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  • 来源
    《Foresight》 |2012年第6期|489-510|共22页
  • 作者

    Ozcan Saritas; Ian Miles;

  • 作者单位

    Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Higher School of Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia;

    Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK, and at the Higher School of Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    development; poverty; searchlight; horizon scanning; network analysis; scenarios; forward planning; project evaluation;

    机译：发展贫穷;探照灯;地平线扫描;网络分析;场景;前瞻性计划;项目评估;

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