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Long-term trajectories of human civilization

机译:人类文明的长期轨迹

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Purpose - This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist. Design/methodology/approach - This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos. Findings - Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible. Originality/value - Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions maybe especially important to pursue.
机译:目的-本文旨在将人类文明的长期轨迹正规化为科学和伦理研究领域。人类文明的长期轨迹可以被定义为人类文明在整个未来时期内可以继续存在的道路。设计/方法论/方法-本文着眼于四种类型的轨迹:现状轨迹,在这种轨迹中,人类文明在与遥远的未来大致相同的状态中持续存在;灾难轨迹,其中一个或多个事件对人类文明造成重大损害;技术变革的轨迹,其中根本的技术突破使人类文明走上了根本不同的道路;天文轨迹,其中人类文明扩展到其本国星球之外,并扩展到宇宙的可及部分。发现-现状轨迹似乎不太可能持续到遥远的未来,尤其是考虑到长期的天文过程。几种灾难,技术改造和天文学轨迹看来都是可能的。原创性/价值-当前的某些行动可能会影响长期发展轨迹。是否应采取这些行动取决于经验和伦理因素的混合。对于某些道德框架而言,采取这些行动可能尤其重要。

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